Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Nashville news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Nashville newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Columbus news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Columbus newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Dallas news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Dallas newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

A Chinese flag outside an oil refinery in Shanghai. Photo: Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images

The U.S.-China trade war is no longer sparing some major energy equipment and commodities, including crude oil, while U.S. natural gas exports still remain outside the struggle.

The big picture: In recent days, analysts have been grappling with a few major questions when it comes to oil, including: how specific trade flows will be affected and whether the wider economic fallout from the U.S.-China fight will hinder worldwide oil demand.

  • Crude exports to China were about 380,000 barrels per day in March, according to U.S. federal data.

ICYMI: Late Friday, Chinese officials floated lists of U.S. products that would be hit with tariffs in response to the White House's announcement of $50 billion in planned tariffs against Chinese goods.

  • The long list includes coal and crude oil, a product that energy-hungry China has been importing in growing volumes from the U.S.

Be smart: A big thing to watch is whether the crude and petroleum product penalties ultimately come to pass. Both countries are proposing two waves of tariffs, and crude is not on the first list of products subject to penalties that starts in early July.

"Taking the two-step retaliation and including crude oil on the second list may indicate how the Chinese are not particularly eager to impose the tariff on U.S. crude oil, and are wishing there may arise some breakthrough in trade talks that would thwart a need for them to carry out the second step."
— Jane Nakano of the Center for Strategic and International Studies tells Axios
  • ClearView Energy Partners said in a note: "The U.S. and China could potentially retract their first-wave proposals. Or, the first-wave proposals could go into force without further action towards the second-wave proposals, largely sparing most fossil energy flows."

Go deeper: This S&P Global Platts story notes that while there are plenty of buyers for U.S. crude, the Chinese action could have an impact. Jason Bordoff of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy notes that it could lower the price of U.S. oil on global markets, and even have a broader impact on the price of oil.

  • "[T]he rising threat of a trade war is a risk to global economic growth rates, which could lower global crude demand growth by several hundred thousand barrels a day and thus depress prices," he said.
  • Yet the scope of those effects remains uncertain in these early days.

One possible future: In a note Monday, Goldman Sachs predicted that the tariffs would result in some redirected U.S. crude flows, but as proposed probably won't harm global demand much — perhaps 20,000 to 40,000 barrels per day, which is very little in a nearly 100 million barrels per day global market.

  • Yes, but: "Key will be how the situation evolves with both potential for de-escalation or even larger tariffs, which would threaten oil demand growth more materially," their analysts said.

Why LNG is spared: The liquefied natural gas sector is another place where China could hit the U.S. But they have strong reasons not to go there, Wood Mackenzie said in a note Monday morning.

  • "Firstly, LNG demand is growing rapidly in China. Secondly, the US will be the key source of incremental supply growth in 2018 and 2019," said Nicholas Browne, a senior gas analyst with the consultancy, in a short note Monday.
  • U.S. LNG provided 4% of Chinese supply past year, but is poised to provide 30% of their incremental supply growth this year and 45% in 2019, he said.

Go deeper

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
3 hours ago - Economy & Business

FTX CEO predicts more U.S. crypto flight

Photo: "Axios on HBO"

FTX doesn't look much like a company valued at $25 billion. Its new headquarters, located in a sleepy part of The Bahamas, is so nondescript as to not even have a sign. But it does expect to soon have neighbors.

Driving the news: Founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried tells "Axios on HBO" to expect "more and more crypto flight from the states" if the U.S. doesn't soon create a regulatory regime for cryptocurrencies.

Developed countries reveal $100 billion climate finance plan ahead of COP26

Alok Sharma, head of the UN Climate Summit in Glasgow, speaks in Paris on Oct. 12. ( Li Yang/China News Service via Getty Images)

After 12 years of fits and starts, industrialized nations on Monday put forward a detailed plan to provide at least $100 billion annually in climate aid to developing countries starting by 2023.

Why it matters: The plan, presented by representatives of Canada and Germany, is aimed at defusing one of the biggest sources of tension at COP26, which is the failure of industrialized nations to follow through on their financial commitments.

3 hours ago - Health

Moderna says COVID vaccine shows strong immune response in kids

Photo: Martin Galindo/Long Visual Press/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Moderna on Monday released trial results for its coronavirus vaccine for children aged 6 to 11, saying it provides a "robust" immune response after two doses.

Why it matters: Moderna said it will officially submit the results to the Food and Drug Administration for authorization in "the near term," meaning we could soon see two coronavirus vaccines available to protect approximately 28 million more kids in the U.S.