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Applicants at a job fair. (Mark Lennihan/AP)

Happy jobs day! The Labor Department will announce its estimate for the number of jobs created in February at 8:30, and economists are expecting 200,000 new jobs and for the unemployment rate to fall to 4.7%. (Update: The U.S. economy added 235,000 jobs and the unemployment rate did fall to 4.7%.)

Donald Trump thinks these bullish stats are fake news. In his address to Congress, the president highlighted the growing number of Americans over the age of 16 who are no longer in the labor force, meaning they don't have a job, but also haven't looked for one in a month or more.

Expand chart
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Christopher Matthews' calculations; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

What bears say: The president, and some economists, have argued that the falling unemployment rate was not the result of an improving economy, but folks giving up looking for work altogether. Indeed, if the labor force participation rate of 2008 were in effect today, the unemployment rate would be 9.6% rather than 4.8%

What bulls say : They've dismissed the above argument, and are expecting higher wages and higher inflation because the pool of actually available workers is quite small. As Republicans take responsibility for the labor market, expect them to increasingly emphasize this view rather than the former.

Go deeper

"No-code" miracle for startups

Expand chart
Data: Interactive Advertising Bureau; Table: Axios Visuals

The U.S. has reached a tipping point in its shift from the industrial economy — one that relied on the buildout of hardware — to an information economy that relies on the transfer, storage and implementation of data, according to a new report.

Why it matters: This shift towards a data and information-based economy has allowed more businesses to establish themselves and scale quickly and at a very low cost. As such, the number of jobs created by the commercial internet has more than tripled since 2012.

Amazon's small business shield

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Amazon is touting the success of small sellers on its platform through the pandemic — and warning that antitrust legislation could jeopardize that success and blow up its open-marketplace model.

Why it matters: As online shopping became a lifeline for both businesses and consumers during the pandemic, Amazon reaped big benefits, but also saw its regulatory risk grow.

The new cold war panic

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The world has seen a power struggle between nuclear powers before, and has seen those countries inch closer to military conflict. But it's never before seen a cold war between two countries as interconnected — with each other and with the rest of the globe — as the U.S. and China.

Why it matters: Escalating antagonism between the world's two superpowers is likely to hinder global cooperation to fight climate change, divert resources to costly arms and tech races, complicate diplomacy for U.S. allies, and victimize Chinese and American citizens living in each other's countries.