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Applicants at a job fair. (Mark Lennihan/AP)

Happy jobs day! The Labor Department will announce its estimate for the number of jobs created in February at 8:30, and economists are expecting 200,000 new jobs and for the unemployment rate to fall to 4.7%. (Update: The U.S. economy added 235,000 jobs and the unemployment rate did fall to 4.7%.)

Donald Trump thinks these bullish stats are fake news. In his address to Congress, the president highlighted the growing number of Americans over the age of 16 who are no longer in the labor force, meaning they don't have a job, but also haven't looked for one in a month or more.

Expand chart
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Christopher Matthews' calculations; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

What bears say: The president, and some economists, have argued that the falling unemployment rate was not the result of an improving economy, but folks giving up looking for work altogether. Indeed, if the labor force participation rate of 2008 were in effect today, the unemployment rate would be 9.6% rather than 4.8%

What bulls say : They've dismissed the above argument, and are expecting higher wages and higher inflation because the pool of actually available workers is quite small. As Republicans take responsibility for the labor market, expect them to increasingly emphasize this view rather than the former.

Go deeper

Focus group: Former Trump voters say he should never hold office again

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

"Relief" is the top emotion some swing voters who used to support Donald Trump say they felt as they watched President Biden's swearing-in, followed by "hope."

Why it matters: For voters on the bubble between parties, this moment is less about excitement for Biden or liberal politics than exhaustion and disgust with Trump and a craving for national healing. Most said Trump should be prohibited from ever holding office again.

Updated 13 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

  1. Health: Most vulnerable Americans aren't getting enough vaccine information — Fauci says Trump administration's lack of facts on COVID "very likely" cost lives.
  2. Politics: Biden unveils "wartime" COVID strategyBiden's COVID-19 bubble.
  3. Vaccine: Florida requiring proof of residency to get vaccine — CDC extends interval between vaccine doses for exceptional cases.
  4. World: Hong Kong to put tens of thousands on lockdown as cases surge.
  5. Sports: 2021 Tokyo Olympics hang in the balance.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: Carbon Health's CEO on unsticking the vaccine bottleneck.

Trump impeachment trial to start week of Feb. 8, Schumer says

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: The Washington Post via Getty

The Senate will begin former President Trump's impeachment trial the week of Feb. 8, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced Friday on the Senate floor.

The state of play: Schumer announced the schedule after reaching an agreement with Republicans. The House will transmit the article of impeachment against the former president late Monday.