May 7, 2019

Turkey's economy is getting worse

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Data: Factset; Chart: Axios Visuals

Turkey's outlook got worse on Monday as the country continues slipping into dictatorship, under a dictator who doesn't seem to care much for laws or macroeconomics.

What's happening: Turkey's government ordered a do-over of mayoral elections in Istanbul, overturning a win for the opposition against loyalists to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

  • The country's lira currency fell to its lowest level since the currency crisis last year, when it was the weakest against the dollar it has ever been, on the news.
  • Inflation is nearly 4 times the official target and the weakening currency will make it more expensive for Turkish companies to pay debt, much of which is in dollars and euros.

The big picture: The country is now in recession, having completely reversed an incredible economic expansion that had seen significant growth and plummeting unemployment. The country's GDP had grown an average of nearly 7% each quarter since late 2009.

  • "We're in a political twilight zone, where the economy has fallen to the side," Anthony Skinner, Middle East and North Africa director at risk analyst Verisk Maplecroft, told Bloomberg.

The bottom line: Things will get worse before they get better. Erdogan recently won re-election and has replaced his finance and economic ministers with his son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, who held a meeting investors in attendance called "an absolute shit show" and the worst they'd ever seen during the IMF-World Bank meetings in April.

  • Erdogan and Albayrak's plans to dig the country out of the economic malaise have been widely panned by investors and economists as unrealistic and overly optimistic. The duo have shown no sign of changing course.

Go deeper: Turkey's election board gives Erdogan his re-run in Istanbul

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Tariff worries hit record high amid coronavirus outbreak

Data: CivicScience, margin of error ±1 percentage points; Chart: Axios Visuals

Concern about President Trump's tariffs on U.S imports grew to record high levels among Americans last month, particularly as more lost their jobs and concern about the novel coronavirus increased.

Driving the news: About seven in 10 people said they were at least somewhat concerned about tariffs in March, according to the latest survey from CivicScience provided first to Axios.

U.S. coronavirus updates: Largest 24-hour spike in fatalities

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

New York's death toll from the novel coronavirus surged to its highest one-day total on Tuesday, as the U.S. saw its largest 24-hour spike in fatalities, per Johns Hopkins data. Recorded deaths across the U.S. surpassed 12,900 early Wednesday.

Why it matters: State officials have stressed that lockdowns must continue even if cities begin to see slight improvements from social distancing. Several hot spots, including New York, New Orleans, and Detroit, are expected to peak in the coming days.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 1 hour ago - Health

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 12:30 a.m. ET: 1,430,453 — Total deaths: 82,133 — Total recoveries: 301,385Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 12:30 a.m. ET: 399,081 — Total deaths: 12,907 — Total recoveries: 22,461Map.
  3. Federal government latest: Acting Navy secretary resigns over handling of virus-infected ship — Trump removes watchdog overseeing rollout of $2 trillion coronavirus bill — Trump said he "didn't see" memos from his trade adviser Peter Navarro warning that the crisis could kill more than half a million Americans.
  4. States latest: California Gov. Gavin Newsom is confident that more than 200 million masks will be delivered to the state "at a monthly basis starting in the next few weeks."
  5. Business latest: America's food heroes in times of the coronavirus crisis. Even when the economy comes back to life, huge questions for airlines will remain.
  6. World updates: China reopens Wuhan after 10-week coronavirus lockdown.
  7. 2020 latest: Polls for Wisconsin's primary elections closed at 9 p.m. ET Tuesday, but results won't be released until April 13. Thousands of residents cast ballots in person.
  8. 1 Olympics thing: About 6,500 athletes who qualified for the Tokyo Games will keep their spots in 2021.
  9. What should I do? Pets, moving and personal healthAnswers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk.
  10. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

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