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President Trump. Photo: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / Contributor

The Environmental Protection Agency's rule controlling power plants’ carbon emissions cuts C02 but preserve more coal electricity, according to a recent analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Why it matters: It’s believed to be the first such EIA analysis of the regulation, putting meat on the bones of one of President Trump’s biggest regulatory moves to scale back rules from his predecessor.

Where it stands: The conclusion, tucked away near the end of an EIA analysis released last week, found that the rule would preserve more existing coal electricity, but drop coal consumption due to increased efficiency at power plants. That increased efficiency would still result in a (slight) drop in C02 emissions.

The big picture: The rule would slow (slightly) America's overall decline in coal electricity, but it wouldn't revive coal like Trump has promised.

By the numbers: The timelines range between 2025 and 2050 (light-years away compared to the minute-by-minute corona crisis…)

  • Nine gigawatts less coal-fired electric capacity is closed by 2025 under the rule compared to without the rule.
  • Coal consumption averages 5% more than without the rule, due to greater efficiency, between 2040 and 2050.
  • Therefore, power-plant carbon emissions are 5% more without the rule than with it in 2025, and 2% more in 2050.

The bottom line: The impact is, on an aggregate, minimal in any direction, but these details will likely matter as the regulation slogs its way through the court.

Go deeper: Trump swaps sweeping Obama-era climate rule for narrow one

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
50 mins ago - Economy & Business

The European Central Bank and the market's moment of truth

ECB president Christine Lagarde; Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The biggest event for markets this week will be Thursday's meeting of the European Central Bank's governing council and the press conference following it from ECB president Christine Lagarde.

Why it matters: With interest rates jumping around the globe, investors are looking to central bank heads to see if they will follow the lead of Fed chair Jerome Powell, who says rising rates are nothing to worry about, or Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who has drawn a line in the sand on rates.

Mike Allen, author of AM
2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Manchin's next power play

Photo: "Axios on HBO"

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), America's ultimate swing voter, told me on "Axios on HBO" that he'll insist Republicans have more of a voice on President Biden's next big package than they did on the COVID stimulus.

The big picture: Manchin said he'll push for tax hikes to pay for Biden's upcoming infrastructure and climate proposal, and will use his Energy Committee chairmanship to force the GOP to confront climate reality.

Why picking a jury for the Derek Chauvin trial is so hard

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

The tough task of selecting a jury for former MPD officer Derek Chauvin's trial for the killing of George Floyd is set to begin Monday.

The state of play: "This case may be the most highly publicized criminal trial in a long time. ... That means that it's harder to find people who really have an open mind," Richard Frase, University of Minnesota Law School professor of criminal law, told Axios.

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