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Fleeing from Ras al-Ain, Syria, on the border with Turkey. Photo: Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump stepped aside and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan marched forward. Over the ensuing week, a delicate balance in Syria has collapsed.

Why it matters: Alliances have been hastily redrawn, civilians have fled in panic, and the U.S. has announced a near-total withdrawal. In the balance are an increasingly fragile victory over ISIS, what's left of the U.S.-Turkey alliance, and the future of Syria and its Kurdish inhabitants.

Catch up quick...

  • Turkey has advanced farther and more rapidly than the U.S. anticipated. Militias it supports have allegedly executed Kurdish civilians and, according to Foreign Policy, freed ISIS captives.
  • Abandoned by their U.S. allies, Kurdish forces struck a deal with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad and his patron, Russia. Today, Syrian forces began flooding into Kurdish-held territory.
  • President Trump today announced that nearly all U.S. troops in Syria will be moved elsewhere in the region. Defense Secretary Mark Esper had said they risked being trapped between advancing armies.

The big picture: “Trump’s acquiescence to Turkey’s move to send troops deep inside Syrian territory has in only one week’s time turned into a bloody carnage, forced the abandonment of a successful five-year-long American project to keep the peace on a volatile border, and given an unanticipated victory to four American adversaries: Russia, Iran, the Syrian government and the Islamic State,” the NYT’s David Sanger writes.

Behind the scenes: This was all born from a bluff, Axios' Jonathan Swan explained today on the Pro Rata podcast.

  • Dating back to 2017, Swan reports, "Trump had been telling Erdogan: 'You wanna go in there? Ok, it’s all yours. You take care of ISIS, you take care of the whole thing. You own all of it.'"
  • "Trump just kept running the same play again and again ... and this time Erdogan was like, 'fine, that's exactly what we'll do.'"
  • “Part of the problem is, Trump really doesn't care about the Kurds. In his mind, he can put a big tick next to clearing out the ISIS caliphate and he just wants to get U.S. troops out, full stop."
  • However, Swan reports, “He is starting to realize that the result of that phone call is a disaster on the ground.”

The latest: In a statement this evening, Trump said the U.S. forces leaving Syria will remain in the region to guard against an ISIS resurgence.

  • He also announced a suspension of trade talks with Turkey, a hike in steel tariffs to 50%, and potential "powerful additional sanctions" against those guilty of "serious human rights abuses."

What to watch: Turkey wants to force Kurdish forces from its borders and resettle Syrian refugees in the new buffer zone. Assad wants to regain control over all of Syria. The Kurds want protection from Turkey and, if possible, a degree of autonomy.

  • Russia, meanwhile, has relationships with all the key players and a military presence in Syria, says Rob Malley, CEO of International Crisis Group and a former Obama administration official.
  • “This is now being played out in the worst possible circumstances. It appears to be a free-for-all, and it’s hard to see a party other than Russia at this point who could orchestrate a settlement."

Go deeper

SoCalGas agrees to $1.8 billion settlement for 2015 gas blowout

An evacuee with a Save Porter Ranch sign outside Southern California Gas Company's Aliso Canyon gate in Porter Ranch in January 2016 as the gas leak continued. Photos: Al Seib / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Southern California Gas Company and its parent company announced Monday they've agreed to pay $1.8 billion in settlement claims over the 2015 Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility blowout.

Why it matters: Some 100,000 tons of methane, ethane and toxic chemicals poured into the air for 112 days, forcing over 8,000 families to evacuate from their Los Angeles-area homes and sickening thousands of others with headaches, nausea and nosebleeds, per the L.A. Times.

Updated 3 hours ago - World

North Korea fires short-range missile to sea, slams "hostile" U.S. policy

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: API/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said Tuesday that North Korea's military had fired a short-range missile toward its eastern sea, per AP.

Why it matters: North Korea's ambassador to the United Nations defended the latest launch in remarks to the UN General Assembly, demanding the U.S. and South Korea end their "hostile policy" against the country.

Arizona Judge: Adding mask mandates ban to budget bill is unconstitutional

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) Photo: Michael Brochstein/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

An Arizona judge ruled Monday that the state's ban on mask mandates in schools, and other measures put into the state budget by Republicans, are unconstitutional, the Arizona Republic reports.

Why it matters: The sweeping ruling voids a ban on vaccine requirements for public universities, community colleges and local governments, and strikes down some non-COVID-related measures like a ban on teaching critical race theory in classrooms and anti-fraud measures for ballots.