Mnuchin: Losing human jobs to AI "not even on our radar screen"

Shannon Vavra
Mar 24

Featured

Mnuchin: Losing human jobs to AI "not even on our radar screen"

Stef W. Kight / Axios

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin joined Axios' Mike Allen this morning at the debut of his News Shapers event series to talk about his new role in the Trump Administration.

On AI supplanting human jobs: "it's not even on our radar screen.... 50-100 more years" away. "I'm not worried at all" about robots displacing humans in the near future, he said, adding: "In fact I'm optimistic."

Other big ticket items:

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Trump:

Trump's stamina: "He's got perfect genes. He has incredible energy and he's unbelievably healthy."
Trump's diet: Mnuchin claimed Trump no longer eats KFC or McDonald's, as the White House food is "great."
The dollar bill: "I think we should look at putting President Trump on the thousand dollar bill."
Trump's views evolving: "He's the negotiator-in-chief... he wants big deals."
Trump's leadership style: "He has an open door. People are coming and going, and he thinks about something and calls somebody on the phone... this is not a formal, scheduled president."

Tax reform:

"Much simpler" than health care reform, saying the Trump administration will do it comprehensively. Not going to break it up into more passable pieces.
Corporate tax rate: Mnuchin declined to reiterate Trump's goal of a 15% corporate tax rate, vs. Ryan's 20% plan.
Carried interest loophole: Mnuchin said the loophole will be closed in our tax plan. But that's for hedge funds. No commitment on real estate, etc.
Border adjustment tax: It has certain aspects that are VAT-like, which much of the rest of the world uses.
The focus of tax cuts: Mnuchin said the Trump administration's focus is on tax cuts for the middle class, not upper.

The global economy:

Renegotiating trade deals: "So long as we can renegotiate [trade] deals that are good for us, we won't be protectionist. Otherwise we will."
The one bad thing: We don't know how to predict the next bad thing.
Trump's big objective: Keep people safe, per Mnuchin.
Does Mnuchin worry about who is calling Trump? "No. Do you?"

On Silicon Valley, tech and jobs:

Valuations: "I don't understand these valuations."

Infrastructure:

Infrastructure finance: "It's clear he wants to do something very significant," Mnuchin said, referenced Trump's wish list. He added it wouldn't be deficit-financed.
The big problem: Regulations, not the money.

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Kim Hart
16 mins ago

Featured

Canada's play for immigrant tech talent

Rebecca Zisser / Axios

When it comes to high-skilled immigration, the U.S.'s loss could be Canada's gain. Canada recently launched a Global Skills Strategy visa program to make it easier for its companies to bring in foreign workers with specific technology or business skills. The program allows firms to have a position pre-approved and get visas within two weeks — a stark contrast to the months-long U.S. visa process.

Why it matters: The Trump administration has moved to restrict the number of immigrants coming into the U.S. on work visas, which worries big tech and consulting firms that use the H-1B visa program to fill technical and specialized jobs. Canada's government is seizing the moment to provide an option for engineers, executives and other tech talent who may no longer qualify for an H-1B visa or who simply don't feel comfortable staying in the U.S.

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Open for business: Navdeep Bains, Canada's Minister of Innovation, told Axios that Canada wants to be open to ideas, open to trade, and "more importantly, we want to be open to people" in order for companies to grow. Bains stopped short of framing the program as a way to poach talent from Silicon Valley, instead saying that the government is "open to whatever region has talent."

"Diversity is a point of pride for us. It's a competitive advantage."

"Go North": Canada has tried to lure Silicon Valley talent through its Go North program that launched late last year, which touts the country's 71,000 tech companies that account for 5.6% of total employment — more than the U.S. The program is largely aimed at Canadian ex-pats, many of which have settled in the San Francisco Bay area, Seattle and London.

A number of ex-pats left Canada's nascent tech scene 15 years ago and are surprised at how much the startup ecosystem has grown since then, said Chris Plunkett of Communitech, a public-private organization that runs a startup accelerator in Waterloo that has helped match workers with companies. "With the political situation with Trump and Brexit, you are seeing people really miss Canada," said in a phone interview between meetings in London. "You are seeing our Prime Minister (Justin Trudeau) be more of a symbol."

Not just tech talent: In addition to finding coveted tech workers like software engineers, Canada's new Global Skills visa is hoping to attract people with specific business experience to help pre-IPO companies scale. While the Toronto-Waterloo corridor is home to many startups, there are few big corporations to sell into and to hire expertise from. Blackberry was the primary tech anchor for years, and though a recent burst of startup activity has attracted some attention, for these companies need to move to the next level the region needs more high-growth business expertise, Plunkett said.

Go deeper: TechCrunch has a detailed look at the Canadian tech scene.

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Christopher Matthews
46 mins ago

Featured

Young American men can find work but prefer to play video games

Casey Rodgers/AP

Twenty-something men are working many fewer hours than they did a decade and a half ago, according to a new study, and the biggest reason is that they prefer to play video games.

Men aged 21-30 worked 12% fewer hours in 2015 than they did in 2000, according to the study, published Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research, and about half the reason is the time they spend gaming.

Why it matters: The results suggest that reduced work for prime-age men is not just or even mostly because they can't find jobs or sufficient hours. It's that, rather than accept what is out there, they choose the contemporary equivalent of hanging out at the pool hall or the race track. In fact, in 2015, roughly 15% of young men worked zero weeks over the year, nearly double the rate in 2000.

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Meaning in life: The NBER findings, originally flagged last year, say that the decline in work hours by men 21-30 almost exactly mirrored their time spent on leisure — mostly video gaming. In the New York Times, Jane McGonigal, a video game scholar, suggested that games offer this young cohort something lacking in available jobs — a meaning to life, specifically that "I'm trying to improve this skill, teammates are counting on me, and my online community is relying on me."

A lot more men in this age group are living with their parents or some other close relative -- 35% of them in 2015, compared with 23% in 2000.
But they are not unhappy or aimless, according to Erik Hurst, one of the paper's authors. Their attitude, he tells the Times, may be, "why not have a little fun in your 20s and work in your 80s?"

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Axios
9 hrs ago

Featured

U.S. condemns North Korean "escalation"

Cliff Owen / AP

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson confirms the U.S. believes North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile. "Testing an ICBM represents a new escalation of the threat to the United States, our allies and partners, the region, and the world." He calls for the world to act against this "global threat" and says the U.S. will bring this latest act before the UN Security Council.

Mike Allen
9 hrs ago

Featured

Biggest threat to Trump’s America

This image, from a news bulletin aired today by North Korea's KRT, is said to show North Korea leader Kim Jong-un applauding after the launch of a Hwasong-14 (KRT via AP Video)

In their final conversations during the transition, Barack Obama issued a stark warning to Donald Trump: North Korea presents the most urgent, alarming, and bedeviling threat you will confront as head of the free world.

Today, North Korea showed why: The regime claims to have successfully tested a missile that could carry a nuclear bomb and hit Alaska (Update: U.S. officials now believe it may have been that type of missile; Secretary of State Tillerson condemns launch as "escalation.")
Trump's tweets: "North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life? Hard to believe that South Korea ... and Japan will put up with this much longer. Perhaps China will put a heavy move on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all!"
What North Korea said, via AP: "[T]he test of an ICBM — the Hwasong-14 — marked the 'final step' in creating a 'confident and powerful nuclear state that can strike anywhere on Earth.'"

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This doesn't mean the United States faces an imminent threat, because intelligence suggests the regime is a ways from getting the technology right to shoot a missile with sufficient distance and nuclear capacity. But this is a huge deal and here's why, from the N.Y. Times:

"The missile looked like the longest-range missile that North Korea had ever tested, and its long flight time was 'more consistent with an ICBM that can target Alaska and perhaps Hawaii,' said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies."

"'Even if this is a 7,000-km-range missile, a 10,000-km-range missile that can hit New York isn't far off.'"

The path of the rocket, via an AP graphic:

Go deeper: Axios Expert Voices charts five courses of action for the U.S. confrontation with North Korea.

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David Nather
12 hrs ago

Featured

Indiana GOP request for health care "horror stories" backfires

Indiana GOP Facebook page

The Indiana Republican Party's quest for Affordable Care Act "horror stories" didn't really go according to plan, the Indianapolis Star reports. When the party in Vice President Mike Pence's home state put out a Facebook request for stories about bad things — rising premiums, fleeing insurers, burdensome regulations — it instead got flooded with stories about good things, like people getting health insurance.

Why it matters: The outcome was predictable, given how the Internet works — you're never, ever just reaching like-minded people. But it's also a good measure of where the energy is in the ACA debate right now. Sure, the Indiana GOP will find people who suffered premium hikes or lost their insurers, because that is part of what's happening. But there are also a lot of people who were personally helped by the ACA — and that's the side that is now fighting back.

Axios
14 hrs ago

Featured

U.S. believes North Korea tested an ICBM

This photo distributed by the North Korean government shows what was said to be the launch of a Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile, ICBM, in North Korea's northwest, Tuesday, July 4, 2017. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this photo. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)

The missile test carried out by North Korea was of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could possibly reach Alaska, unidentified U.S. officials are telling Fox News, CNN and NBC News. CNN reported earlier that should it be determined to have been an ICBM test, any response to would be "measured" and could include sending more troops or aircraft to the region or imposing more sanctions.

Why this matters: A missile that could travel as many as 4,000 miles and hit Alaska represents continued progress by the North Koreans on their missile program and the achievement of a goal that President Trump had said in January "won't happen."

Go deeper: Axios Expert Voices on dealing with North Korea

Sara Fischer
15 hrs ago

Featured

The future is live

Data: Magid; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

Live boom: Facebook launched its live platform last year and now says 1 in 5 videos on its platform are live and daily time spent watching Facebook Live broadcasts has grown by more than 4x.

Why it matters: The video duopoly of Facebook and YouTube is killing it in the arms race for live-streaming dominance, which should have traditional TV companies worried. Nearly half of online users watch live-streaming every week and nearly a quarter say they watch live-streaming every day, per Magid's latest social broadcasting study.

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Facebook also announced earlier this year it's finally matching YouTube in giving publishers a 55 percent cut of ad dollars to seed its real-time offerings.

Both platforms have launched a ton of live-streaming partnerships around sports in particular. Why? Look at the type of programming watched live versus on DVR, via comScore:

Sports: 90% - 10%
News: 90% - 10%
Comedy: 85% - 15%
Movies: 85% - 15%
Reality: 75% - 25%
Drama: 71% - 29%

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Mike Allen
20 hrs ago

Featured

Trump reins in tariff temptation

Carolyn Kaster / AP

President Trump, who has expressed enthusiasm behind closed doors for harsh trade tariffs aimed at China, is headed — for now — toward a more moderate course.

Trump originally favored a hard line, but was told in a heated meeting that most of his staff and Cabinet were opposed. Economic adviser Gary Cohn and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin argued privately that tough tariffs were bad economics at a time when the market and job rates are strong.
Trump left staff with the impression he would proceed with tariffs, but has tempered his views amid the internal pressure.
Before heading off to Europe tomorrow on the second international trip of his presidency, Trump tweeted: "Really great numbers on jobs & the economy! Things are starting to kick in now, and we have just begun! Don't like steel & aluminum dumping!"

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The backstory: Indeed, steel and aluminum have been on Trump's mind for months. But it turns out that the U.S. imports little steel from China, and most of the steel we import isn't dumped (sold below cost).

The players: The most muscular internal enthusiasm for across-the-board tariffs comes from Steve Bannon and trade-policy director Peter Navarro. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, a longtime friend of the president's, is seen as sharing Bannon's view but is cooler to outright tariffs.

The likely solution: With the caveat that Trump can always make unexpected decisions, the administration is headed toward a more tailored approach that targets China and countries through which it trans-ships steel — Vietnam, for example. That could include possible tariffs, based on unfair trade practices, like dumping.

What's next: The U.S. will need help from other countries to deal with China. A White House readout of a Trump call yesterday with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, ahead of this week's G-20 summit in Hamburg, said they discussed "global steel overcapacity" — a.k.a., the problem of Chinese dumping on the worldwide market.

Be smart: Read that as a signal that Trump plans a G-20 discussion of more collective action.

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Mike Allen
20 hrs ago

Featured

Exclusive: Astonishing poll about Trump and media

A stark poll by Survey Monkey finds that 89% of Republicans view President Trump as more trustworthy than CNN, and 91% of Democrats think the opposite. Among all adults, trust for CNN is 7 points ahead of Trump. Among independents, CNN wins by 15 points.

Why it matters, from SurveyMonkey's Jon Cohen: "The fight ... between the White House and major media outlets has made the question of truthfulness just as partisan-tinged as health care or other policies."

Data: SurveyMonkey; Chart: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

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Asked whether they trust Trump or the WashPost/NYT more, the newspapers won by 9 points among all adults. Asked about Trump vs. ABC/CBS/NBC, the networks were judged more trustworthy by an 11-point margin. Republicans had a similar disproportionate trust in Trump.

The online poll of 4,965 adults, taken June 29 to July 3 (error estimate: +/- 2.5 points), found:

33% of Republicans say they get their news only from Fox.
64% of all adults disapprove of Trump's use of Twitter (89% Dems, 38% Republicans).
Describing his tweets (all adults): undignified 47% ... mean 34% ... entertaining 26% ... presidential 7%.

Jon Cohen, Survey Monkey's SVP, survey research, emails me his takeaways:

"A red flag for Democrats continues to be a perception that Trump is isolating himself from the GOP base with his tweets. Not only do most Republicans approve of his use of Twitter, but asked to describe those tweets, the No. 1 mention among the GOP is 'truthful,' with 'entertaining' in second place."
"[T]he biggest danger for Republicans is that they grow content with firing up the base: Fully three-quarters of pure independents (those that don't lean one way or the other) disapprove of Trump's tweeting, and their top three descriptors for it are 'undignified,' 'mean,' and 'dishonest.'"

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Sara Fischer
23 hrs ago

Featured

A media wake-up call

AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, File

Forget President Trump's Twitter terrorism against big media companies. The real and urgent web-world threats that could truly bring down a New York Times or CNN are the escalating cyberattacks targeting media and the companies they rely on.

Why it matters: The entire digital ecosystem is far more vulnerable to cyberattacks -and far more ill-prepared to respond - than we realize. "A large part of this too comes from the fact that media companies are not at all prepared for these threats and the impact isn't always obvious until it's too late," says Asaf Cidon, CEO of cybersecurity firm Barracuda networks.

The examples

Last week, WPP, the global ad agency, and its subsidiary agencies were forced to shut down after a ransomware attack made their systems completely inoperable.
The day after the attack, Fastly, a content distribution network that acts as a backup for several mainstream media sites, like Reddit, The New York Times and Axios, went down due to an unrelated technical malfunction, leaving client websites vulnerable as a global ransomware attack was in motion.
In April, Google and Facebook, the two biggest tech giants globally, announced that they were the subject of a phishing scam worth over $100 million. And they have way better tech and security than conventional media companies.
Last October, a DDOS (bot-based) attack shut down half of the internet, including major media companies, like the Guardian, CNN and Twitter.

Even more pressing: As media organizations become more centralized through consolidation, security experts and safeguards get moved up the chain from the local level to far-flung city headquarters, leaving local outlets more vulnerable.

Be smart: Bone up on phishing attacks (a common and effective cyber-scam used to gain access to sensitive data through harmless click-here emails). Google sent journalists precautionary warnings of state-sponsored phishing attacks earlier this year.

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