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Curt Moldenhauer, PwC's US China Inbound Leader, tells Axios that the burgeoning trade wars could increase the amount of cross-border M&A:

"Let's assume that a company can no longer easily trade into China or the U.S. but still has a desire to do so for strategic reasons. One option is greenfield investment, like building a plant to skip tariffs, or you can go buy somebody local to do the same thing. These are basically substitution effects for trade."

Moldenhauer says he is using "M&A" liberally here, as it could be anything from a complete buyout to a joint venture to strategic transactions that don't involve any equity (such as certain biotech partnerships that might be encouraged by the Chinese government).

  • "The last big trade war began in the 1970s with the Japanese, when both sides were taking a similar amount of political grief over similar things like trade deficits and investments in sensitive industries... as it played out, Japan became one of the biggest investors in the U.S. economy, including through M&A."
  • Moldenhauer stresses that his is a long-term view as, right now, trade uncertainty is depressing both inbound and outbound deal-flow. "I suspect we'll see a bit of a rough third quarter."

Go deeper

Louisville officer: "Breonna Taylor would be alive" if we had served no-knock warrant

Breonna Taylor memorial in Louisville. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Sgt. Jonathan Mattingly, the Louisville officer who led the botched police raid that caused the death of Breonna Taylor, said the No. 1 thing he wishes he had done differently is either served a "no-knock" warrant or given five to 10 seconds before entering the apartment: "Breonna Taylor would be alive, 100 percent."

Driving the news: Mattingly, who spoke to ABC News and Louisville's Courier Journal for his public interview, was shot in the leg in the initial moments of the March 13 raid. Mattingly did not face any charges after Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron said he and another officer were "justified" in returning fire to protect themselves against Taylor's boyfriend.

U.S. vs. Google — the siege begins

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The Justice Department fired the starter pistol on what's likely to be a years-long legal siege of Big Tech by the U.S. government when it filed a major antitrust suit Tuesday against Google.

The big picture: Once a generation, it seems, federal regulators decide to take on a dominant tech company. Two decades ago, Microsoft was the target; two decades before that, IBM.

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Why the stimulus delay isn't a crisis (yet)

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

If the impasse between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House on a new stimulus deal is supposed to be a crisis, you wouldn't know it from the stock market, where prices continue to rise.

  • That's been in no small part because U.S. economic data has held up remarkably well in recent months thanks to the $2 trillion CARES Act and Americans' unusual ability to save during the crisis.

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