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Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

Investing in unbundled risk can be extremely dangerous. Alan Greenspan was never more wrong than when he defended the deregulation of derivatives in 1999:

"These new financial instruments are an increasingly important vehicle for unbundling risks. These instruments enhance the ability to differentiate risk and allocate it to those investors most able and willing to take it."

The catch: In theory, Greenspan was right. In practice, however, derivatives weren't being used to allocate risk to people who wanted it. Instead, they were used to hide risk, to make risky loans look like ultra-safe securities with triple-A credit ratings, and to sell them to unsuspecting investors who had no idea what they were buying.

Driving the news: The Federal Reserve and others, including Janet Yellen, have been worrying a lot about the rise in leveraged lending. High-risk, junk-rated loans to deeply indebted corporate borrowers now total well over $1 trillion, and already lawsuits have started flying after loans have gone bad. But unlike Greenspan's derivatives, leveraged loans are well-understood and held by institutions that understand their risks.

  • Nobody's kidding themselves that these loans are safe. Defaults are priced in, with credit spreads already above their 20-year average, per the Fed.
  • The biggest loan investors are banks and insurance companies, and the risk is dispersed enough that even significant financial losses on these loans would not cause a broader systemic risk. Elsewhere, CLOs comprise a very small part of most investors' asset allocation.
  • $1 trillion is a lot of money, but it's small in comparison to the combined capitalizations of the Big Tech stocks. Investors in Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet lost a total of $650 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018, with no systemic spillovers.

What to watch: So long as the music keeps playing, the banks will keep on dancing. When one loan comes due, it will be refinanced with another, or interest will be paid in kind. When the music stops, defaults will spike. The big question is what then happens to the borrowers, their vendors and their employees.

  • U.S. bankruptcy law is designed to keep bankrupt companies operating as going concerns. The ownership might change, and the shareholders generally get wiped out, but it's possible for employees and vendors to emerge from the process in an improved condition. As we saw with Toys "R" Us, however, that doesn't always happen.

The bottom line: If the leveraged loan market starts collapsing under its own weight, the broader consequences will likely be small. On the other hand, if the loan market fails as a result of a broader economic contraction, highly indebted companies will be at much higher risk of shutting down entirely once they default.

Go deeper

FDA limits use of Regeneron and Lilly COVID antibody treatments

A coldbox containing monoclonal antibody treatments at a Regeneron clinic in Pembroke Pines, Florida, in August. Photo: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The FDA said Monday it's limiting the use of two monoclonal antibody therapies as COVID-19 treatments because data indicates they're "highly unlikely" to be effective against the dominant Omicron variant.

Driving the news: The FDA revised the authorizations for Regeneron and Eli Lilly "to limit their use to only when the patient is likely to have been infected with or exposed to a variant that is susceptible to these treatments," per a statement from the agency.

Updated 3 hours ago - World

Pentagon: 8,500 troops on high alert for possible deployment to eastern Europe

Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has placed 8,500 U.S. troops on "heightened preparedness to deploy" to eastern Europe in case NATO activates its rapid-response force over tensions with Russia, the Pentagon announced Monday.

Why it matters: No decisions have been made to actually deploy U.S. forces, but the heightened alert level will allow the military to rapidly shore up NATO's eastern flank in the event that Russia invades Ukraine. The Pentagon warned that Russia has shown "no signs of de-escalating," and continues to amass troops on Ukraine's borders.

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Biden calls Fox News reporter a "stupid son of a b---h" on hot mic

President Biden blasted Fox News' Peter Doocy on Monday after the reporter asked if the nation's soaring inflation is a political liability, saying, "what a stupid son of a b----h."

The latest: The president called Doocy Monday evening, the reporter told Fox's Sean Hannity. "He cleared the air and I appreciated it. We had a nice call," Doocy said when asked whether the president apologized, adding: "I don't need anyone to apologize to me."