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Photo: Jaap Arriens / Getty Images

What is Uber really worth? That's a big question right now, as SoftBank is prepping a private tender that could value the company as low as $50 billion or as high as the $70 billion that it got in its last funding round. But one shareholder, who asked to remain anonymous, argues to Axios that a comparable analysis actually should value Uber at upwards of $95 billion.

Here's the math:

  • Comp #1: Lyft's gross revenue for Q2 2017 reportedly came in at around $1 billion, and it recently raised new funding from Google at a $10 billion pre-money valuation. That works out to a 2.5x multiple on annualized gross revenue.
  • Comp #2: Didi Chuxing's gross revenue for Q2 2017 came in at around $5.75 billion, per a source, and was valued in May by SoftBank at $45 billion pre-money. That works out to a 1.95x multiple on annualized gross revenue.
  • Applied: Uber's gross revenue for Q2 2017 reportedly was $8.7 billion, or $34.8 billion annualized. Were it to receive the multiple applied to Lyft, the valuation would be $87 billion. If it received the multiple applied to Didi, the valuation would be nearly $68 billion.
  • Addition: Uber owns a 17% stake in Didi, which should be worth $8.5 billion (based on the May post-money).
  • New valuation range: $76.5 billion to $95.5 billion, depending on if you use the Didi or Lyft multiple. One could argue Didi is a better comp because it's a larger company, or one could argue Lyft is better because it's U.S.-based and its valuation is more current.

Transparency: The shareholder is among those expected to receive the tender offer from SoftBank, so has a vested interest in the Japanese firm proposing a high price. But that doesn't change the math.

Additional caveat: None of this takes into account non-financial arguments that SoftBank could make for discounting the tender, such as Uber's recent management tumult, self-inflicted PR wounds, litigation risk and shareholder motivation to enact governance changes that are tied to the deal close. Also, there arguably is some valuation circularity at play here — Didi and Lyft valuations climb because of Uber valuation, and then Uber valuation climbs based on Didi and Lyft valuations.

Go deeper

2 hours ago - World

Coast Guard searches for 39 people after boat capsizes off Florida coast

A U.S. Coast Guard ship leaving its base in Miami Beach, Florida, in July. Photo: AP/Marta Lavandier

U.S. Coast Guard crews were searching into the night for 39 people whose boat sank off Florida's coast over the weekend after traveling from the Bahamas.

The big picture: A "good Samaritan" contacted the Coast Guard about 8 a.m. Tuesday to say they "rescued a man clinging to a capsized vessel" 45 miles east of Fort Pierce, per a tweet from the agency, which noted it was dealing with "a suspected human smuggling venture."

Scoop: Race to lead NRCC kicks off

Reps. Darin LaHood (left) and Richard Hudson. Photos: Al Drago/Getty Images (LaHood) and Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Reps. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) and Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) are both telling colleagues they plan to run for chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee for the 2024 cycle, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Why it matters: Republicans are confident they'll win the House majority back this fall, and the early jockeying to lead the caucus' fundraising apparatus is just another indicator of their optimism.

Scoop: White House plans expedited resettlement for Afghan refugees

Afghan Special Immigrant Visa holders enter a processing center at Camp As Sayliyah, Qatar, last August. Photo: Sgt. Jimmie Baker/U.S. Army via Getty Images

President Biden's advisers are crafting a plan to accelerate bringing potentially thousands of Afghans to the U.S. from Qatar, according to a source with direct knowledge of the administration's internal deliberations on the subject.

Why it matters: As U.S. military leaders plan for a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, the administration is still struggling to handle the aftereffects of its chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal. One challenge: how to care for tens of thousands of displaced Afghans — many of whom helped the U.S. fight its longest war.