Jun 19, 2017

The bull and bear case for Instacart

AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis

Conventional wisdom is that the Amazon/Whole Foods deal should worry Instacart, which last year signed a five-year agreement that made Instacart the exclusive delivery service for Whole Foods' perishable items. After all, Amazon has a bit of experience with home delivery.

But Axios has since learned that Whole Foods does not have a contractual "out," as its agreement with Instacart includes neither a Whole Foods change of control provision nor the option for Whole Foods to pay some sort of termination fee. So let's briefly recalibrate Instacart's future fortunes:

  • Bull case: Instacart has spent the past few years warning grocers that Amazon is coming for them, and it's hard to imagine there are any more non-believers after Friday. That should help it sign up more new chains ― it recently expanded its reach into Publix, Wegmans and Ahold ― thus making Whole Foods less important to its own top line (where it currently represents just under 10% of all Instacart revenue). Plus, Instacart could use its Whole Foods contract to delay Amazon's own delivery expansion plans, and there is no indication that Whole Foods has any access to underlying Instacart IP.
  • Bear case: Amazon doesn't mind playing the long game. Remember, this is the same company that bought into something called HomeGrocer.com back in 1999. It's also possible that Amazon could pursue a so-called "efficient breach" of contract with Instacart, whereby it determines that the legal damages of violating the deal would be less than the eventual gains of delivering Whole Foods groceries on its own.

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U.S. coronavirus updates: Death toll nears 11,000

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Recorded deaths from the novel coronavirus surpassed 10,900 in the U.S. early Tuesday, per Johns Hopkins data. More than 1,000 people in the U.S. have died of coronavirus-related conditions each day since April 1.

Why it matters: U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams said on Sunday this week will be "the hardest and saddest week of most Americans' lives" — calling it our "our Pearl Harbor, our 9/11 moment."

Go deeperArrowUpdated 32 mins ago - Health

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 1:30 a.m. ET: 1,347,892 — Total deaths: 74,808 — Total recoveries: 284,802Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 p.m. ET: 368,2441 — Total deaths: 10,989 — Total recoveries: 19,828Map.
  3. Trump administration latest: President Trump's economic adviser Peter Navarro warned White House colleagues in late January the coronavirus could take over half a million American lives and cost close to $6 trillion, memos obtained by Axios show.
  4. 2020 update: Wisconsin Supreme Court blocks governor's attempt to delay in-person primary voting delayed until June.
  5. States latest: West Coast states send ventilators to New York and other states with more immediate need — Data suggest coronavirus curve may be flattening in New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.
  6. World update: U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved to intensive care as coronavirus symptoms worsen.
  7. Stocks latest: The S&P 500 closed up 7% on Monday, while the Dow rose more than 1,500 points.
  8. What should I do? Pets, moving and personal health. Answers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk.
  9. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

Subscribe to Mike Allen's Axios AM to follow our coronavirus coverage each morning from your inbox.

Docs: Navarro memos warning mass death circulated West Wing in January

Image from a memo to President Trump

In late January, President Trump's economic adviser Peter Navarro warned his White House colleagues the novel coronavirus could take more than half a million American lives and cost close to $6 trillion, according to memos obtained by Axios.

  • By late February, Navarro was even more alarmed, and he warned his colleagues, in another memo, that up to two million Americans could die of the virus.

Driving the news: Navarro's grim estimates are set out in two memos — one dated Jan. 29 and addressed to the National Security Council, the other dated Feb. 23 and addressed to the president. The NSC circulated both memos around the White House and multiple agencies.

Go deeperArrow3 hours ago - Health