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This scenario seemed unthinkable a month ago, but it's now being privately discussed by sources involved in Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation: If Kavanaugh falls after the FBI investigation this week and Democrats flip the Senate in November, will Trump nominate a compromise Supreme Court justice who's acceptable to Senate Democrats?

The answer: No way, according to sources with direct knowledge of the president’s thinking, both inside and outside the White House.

"If Kavanaugh doesn't make it, it all depends on the midterms," said one of those sources.

  • "If they hold the Senate, OK, regroup, put somebody up next year or maybe end of this year.
  • "But if he [Kavanaugh] doesn’t make it and the Senate flips, I think it's 4-4 for next two years.

"Politically, I think they would rather keep it 4-4 rather than put somebody acceptable on the court," the source added. "He [Trump] needs to run on polarization and the court in 2020."

  • One of Trump's most trusted advisers told me he'd counsel Trump that if Democrats win the Senate, under no circumstances should he nominate a compromise candidate.
  • A senior administration official close to the process told me: "A 4-4 tie is a conservative win. Not as much as a 5-4 majority, but it takes constitutional interpretation out of D.C."
  • And a White House official told me Trump has made clear he'd nominate somebody in Kavanaugh's judicial mold no matter what happens in the midterms. "He sees it as a fundamental promise," the official told me. "They [Democrats] are not going to be rewarded for this. He's not going to undercut allies and reward enemies."

Go deeper

McConnell: Senate has "more than sufficient time" to process Supreme Court nomination

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in a floor speech Monday that the chamber has "more than sufficient time" to confirm a replacement for Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg before the election, and accused Democrats of preparing "an even more appalling sequel" to the fight over Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation.

Why it matters: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has said "nothing is off the table next year" if Republicans push ahead with the confirmation vote before November, vowing alongside Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) to use "every procedural tool available to us to ensure that we buy ourselves the time necessary."

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

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  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 1:30 p.m. ET: 31,120,980 — Total deaths: 961,656— Total recoveries: 21,287,328Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 1:30 p.m. ET: 6,819,651 — Total deaths: 199,606 — Total recoveries: 2,590,671 — Total tests: 95,108,559Map.
  3. Health: CDC says it mistakenly published guidance about COVID-19 spreading through air.
  4. Politics: House Democrats file legislation to fund government through Dec. 11.
  5. Business: Unemployment concerns are growing.
  6. World: "The Wake-Up Call" warns the West about the consequences of mishandling a pandemic.

House Democrats file legislation to fund government through Dec. 11

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

House Democrats on Monday released their proposal for short-term legislation to fund the government through December 11.

Why it matters: This is Congress' chief legislative focus before the election. They must pass a continuing resolution (CR) before midnight on Oct. 1 to avoid a government shutdown — something both Hill leaders and the White House have claimed is off the table.