Trump, Pence and Congressional leaders meet in December. Photo: Olivier Douliery - Pool/Getty Images

Unless Congress passes a funding bill before Friday, the government will shut down.

Here's what we expect this week, based on conversations with senior House and Senate aides:

  • Congress will likely — at the last minute, of course — pass a short-term  funding bill, known as a Continuing Resolution (CR), to keep the government open while they keep negotiating on the big ticket items.
  • There'll be no immigration deal before the deadline. Democrats and Republicans are far from agreeing on a DACA deal, and the president is still raging after Lindsey Graham, Dick Durbin and others presented him with what he considers a completely unacceptable “bipartisan deal.”
  • A new group of Republicans and Democrats — top House and Senate members Kevin McCarthy, Steny Hoyer, Dick Durbin and John Cornyn — have started meeting to hash out an immigration deal that works for the president. These discussions are very preliminary, and will continue this week.

Inside the GOP messaging strategy: Democrats don't want to support a government funding bill unless it has a DACA fix. So, Republicans will try to brand Democrats as the shutdown party — saying they're holding the government hostage, including disaster relief payments, essential services, and troop funding — all in the service of “illegal immigration.”

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At least 15 states broke their single-day novel coronavirus infection records this week, according to state health department data reviewed by Axios.

The big picture: The number of coronavirus cases increased in the vast majority of states over the last week, and decreased in only two states plus the District of Columbia, Axios' Andrew Withershoop and Caitlin Owens report.

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In photos: America celebrates July 4 during global pandemic

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The U.S. has already celebrated Easter, graduations and so much more during the coronavirus pandemic, and now it can add July 4 to the list.

The state of play: Axios' Stef Kight writes public parades and fireworks displays around much of the country are being canceled to prevent mass gatherings where the virus could spread. Hot-dog contests and concerts will play to empty stands and virtual audiences — all while American pride treads an all-time low.