Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Norway is poised to win and Canada is likely to lose when it comes to oil and gas in a world tackling climate change.

Driving the news: Norway has the lowest carbon dioxide intensity per produced barrel of oil equivalent, while Canada has the highest, according to new data from consultancy Rystad Energy.

Why it matters: In a world drastically reducing heat-trapping emissions, producers with the cleanest fossil fuels relative to each other will fare best. That's because even in a 2050 future with drastically fewer emissions, society will still need oil and gas, it will just be a lot less — and cleaner.

Flashback: I likened this concept to a crude musical game of chairs in a column from September 2019.

  • The world’s oil, natural gas and coal producers are, metaphorically speaking, encircling a bunch of chairs, and as the world tightens its grip on heat-trapping emissions, the use of these fuels will drop — as will the number of chairs.

One level deeper: Not all oil and gas is the same. The producers remaining at the end will be there because they have the cleanest oil and gas. Canada, for example, relies on a heavy kind from its oil sands whose carbon intensity is high compared to other kinds.

The big picture: The U.S., as the world's biggest producer of oil and gas, is also the world's biggest overall emitter of carbon from oil and gas, Rystad found. Its intensity per barrel of oil equivalent is fifth, after Norway and three Middle Eastern countries.

Go deeper: Fossil fuels bracing for crude game musical chairs

Go deeper

Trump admin proposes drilling on over two-thirds of largest plot of U.S. public land

Photo: Loop Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

The Bureau of Land Management on Thursday proposed to expand oil and gas drilling to over two-thirds of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska: the nation's largest stretch of public land.

Why it matters: Alaska's all-GOP congressional delegation — including Sens. Dan Sullivan, Lisa Murkowski and Rep. Don Young — is praising the plan as a means to boost the state's economy, per the Washington Post. But environmental advocates are lamenting the potential loss of wildlife protections for the Alaskan tract that have spanned over four decades.

Shale's long and uncertain road back

Reproduced from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Chart: Axios Visuals

A new Dallas Fed survey of energy executives and the upswing in COVID-19 cases together signal the near- and long-term problems facing domestic oil producers.

Why it matters: It's another window onto something we wrote about earlier this week: The once-booming shale patch may never achieve its former output, and if it does, it'll be reshaped as some financially weaker players face insolvency and potential acquisition.

Updated 16 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3:30 p.m. ET: 10,763,604 — Total deaths: 517,667 — Total recoveries — 5,522,094Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3:30 p.m. ET: 2,715,124 — Total deaths: 128,439 — Total recoveries: 729,994 — Total tested: 32,827,359Map.
  3. Public health: What we know about the immune response to coronavirus and what it means for a vaccine.
  4. Politics: Herman Cain hospitalized for COVID-19 after attending Trump Tulsa rally — Biden downplays jobs number, rebukes Trump for ignoring health crisis.
  5. States: Florida reports more than 10,000 new coronavirus cases — 5 states saw 27% spike in heart-related deaths in first 3 months of coronavirus pandemic.