The next jobs report is set to be released on Friday: expect the government to announce that 185,000 new jobs were created in September, with the unemployment rate ticking down to 3.8%.

Remember: The margin of error on the jobs number is very large — if 185,000 jobs were genuinely created in September, then the best we'll be able to say with 95% confidence is that it's somewhere between 70,000 and 300,000.