AP Photo / Susan Walsh

Over the next 20 years, federal Medicaid spending would be 35% lower with the Senate health care bill than without it, according to a new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office.

Why it matters: Notwithstanding the semantic back-and-forth between "cuts" and "reductions in the rate of growth" under the Senate bill, CBO's latest report makes it pretty clear that the federal government will spend a lot less money on Medicaid if the Senate bill passes, likely forcing states to cut providers' payments or restrict eligibility for the program.

Key takeaway: Under the Senate bill, federal Medicaid would make up a smaller share of the overall economy than it does today. Per CBO's estimates:

  • Medicaid is expected make up 2% of GDP this year.
  • If Medicaid's status quo continues, it would rise to 2.4% of GDP by 2036.
  • Under the Senate bill, it would be 1.6% of GDP in 2036.

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Trump's Tucker mind-meld

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Roy Rochlin/Getty Images and BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

If you want to understand the rhetorical roots of Trump's Independence Day speech at Mount Rushmore, go back and watch Tucker Carlson's monologues for the past six weeks.

Between the lines: Trump — or rather his speechwriter Stephen Miller — framed the president's opposition to the Black Lives Matter protest movement using the same imagery Carlson has been laying out night after night on Fox.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

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  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 6 p.m. ET: 2,874,396 — Total deaths: 129,870 — Total recoveries: 906,763 — Total tested: 35,512,916Map.
  3. States: Photos of America's pandemic July 4 ICU beds in Arizona hot spot near capacity — Houston mayor warns about hospitals
  4. Public health: U.S. coronavirus infections hit record highs for 3 straight days.
  5. Politics: Former Trump official Tom Bossert says face masks “are not enough”
  6. World: Mexican leaders call for tighter border control as infections rise in U.S.
  7. Sports: Sports return stalked by coronavirus
  8. 1 📽 thing: Drive-in movie theaters are making a comeback.

Bolton's hidden aftershocks

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The news media has largely moved on, but foreign government officials remain fixated on John Bolton's memoir, "The Room Where It Happened."

Why it matters: Bolton's detailed inside-the-Oval revelations have raised the blood pressure of allies who were already stressed about President Trump's unreliability.