EIA predicts renewables will become largest U.S. electricity source before 2050

The Energy Department's data arm is more favorable on renewables' long-term future than it was a year ago, but its central analysis might still be badly underestimating the tech's trajectory.

Driving the news: The Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook released yesterday shows power from renewables overtaking natural gas as the nation's largest electricity source in about 15 years.

Why it matters: It's a reversal of fortune from last year's version, which projected that in 2050 natural gas would still be the biggest power source with a 39% share and renewables at 31%.

• “This shift has been strongly influenced by federal and state policies that help make renewables the fastest-growing source of electricity,” EIA administrator Linda Capuano said Wednesday, per Bloomberg.

The intrigue: One thing worth keeping in mind is that EIA's "reference" case assumes a static policy landscape going forward.

• Predicting the future is hard! But it's safe to assume policy won't be static.
• EIA also published alternative scenarios — a high-cost case and a low-cost case in which renewable costs in 2050 are 40% lower than the reference case.
• In the low-cost case, renewables have a 50% share in 2050.

But, but, but: Renewables' growth has outpaced EIA projections for many years.

• "I do think that the [EIA] numbers are moving in the right direction, but still too conservative," Joshua Rhodes, an analyst with the firm Vibrant Clean Energy, tells me.
• He points to the recent burst of long-term state and utility clean power plans, and he's skeptical that coal will even have close to the 13% share by 2050 that EIA projects.

Go deeper:

• Big Tech goes green, but still can't escape climate pressure
• Wind and solar dominate new U.S. power capacity