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Expand chart
Data: Treasury Department; Chart: Axios Visuals

Following a yield curve inversion in March that sent tremors through financial markets, the spread between 10-year Treasury notes and 3-month T-bills has reversed and widened.

Driving the news: The inversion caused significant worry among economists and some market participants as it is one of the most reliable financial market recession indicators available.

Yes, but: While a prolonged inversion would have been worrisome, analysts say the market isn't signaling all is well with the economy just yet.

  • "I'm actually surprised we haven't seen a more meaningful selloff in bonds, given the good news that has pushed stock prices up — the delay in Brexit, the trade war and expectations for a pickup in growth in the second half of the year," Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, told Axios.

What to watch: Rajappa says, the rise in yields hasn't pushed the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries that much higher. The difference of 15 basis points is still very tight and near levels seen in 2007.

  • "The market's much more focused on what's happening globally," she said, including growth slowdowns in Europe, Japan and China.

Bonus: The yield curve is still inverted on the short end with 1-month bills holding higher yields than maturities as long as 5 years.

Go deeper: Will the yield curve lead to recession? It really is different this time

Go deeper

Updated 2 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Inauguration Day dashboard

U.S. Capitol and stage are lit at sunrise ahead of the inauguration of Joe Biden. Photo: Patrick Semansky - Pool/Getty Images

President Biden has delivered his inaugural address at the Capitol, calling for an end to the politics as total war but warning that "we have far to go" to heal the country.

What's next: Representatives from all branches of the military escort the 46th president to the White House.

Inaugural address: Biden vows to be "a president for all Americans"

Moments after taking the oath of office, President Biden sought to soothe a nation riven by political divisions and a global pandemic, while warning that "we have far to go" to heal the country and defeat a "virus that silently stalks the the country."

Why it matters: From the same steps that a pro-Trump mob launched an assault on Congress two weeks earlier, the new president paid deference to the endurance of American political institutions.

Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

In photos: The Biden and Harris inauguration

Joe Biden is sworn in as the 46th president of the United States. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were inaugurated as president and vice president respectively in a ceremony at the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday morning.

Why it matters: Top Democrats and Republicans gathered for the peaceful transfer of power only two weeks after an unprecedented siege on the building by Trump supporters to disrupt certification of Biden's victory. Trump did not attend Wednesday's ceremony.

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