In addition to the inverted yield curve, there's another recession indicator Americans should be watching, analysts say: the value of corporate equities that households and non-profits own.

Why it matters: While prices have largely climbed back, households are still holding off on buying. Much of 2019's pickup in stock prices has been driven by corporate buybacks.

Details: How much of corporate equities that households and non-profits own as a share of U.S. GDP fell from its highs at the end of the year. It dropped in the last quarter of 2018 as equity prices fell and households sold shares.

  • Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said institutions, hedge funds and private clients have been selling equities for 9 weeks straight.
  • Deutsche Bank this week said its clients were rotating into bonds and out of equity funds.

The bottom line: "Sharp upward spikes in household equity valuations have often preceded recessions," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Cambridge Global Payments, tells Axios.

  • "The value of U.S. household investment as a share of GDP tends to peak just before a recession, meaning that the average person is over-invested at the top, and under-invested at the bottom of each cycle."

Go deeper: Will the yield curve lead to recession? It really is different this time

Go deeper

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
5 mins ago - Economy & Business

A white-collar crime crackdown

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

America has waited a decade for an aggressive government crackdown on white-collar crime. Now, just before the election, and in the middle of a bull market, it has arrived.

Why it matters: When times are good, investors become more trusting and more greedy. That makes them more likely to put their money into fraudulent or criminal enterprises.

  • After a decade-long bull market, there is no shortage of those frauds to prosecute.
33 mins ago - Technology

Lawyers crystal-ball the Google antitrust case

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

The Justice Department's antitrust suit against Google is a strong, straightforward monopoly case, competition lawyers and experts tell Axios. But that doesn't mean it'll be an easy journey for the government.

The big picture: Winning any antitrust case is a heavy lift. It's even more of a challenge to pull off victory in a future-looking case that seeks to make room for potential new competition to flourish.

The pandemic is getting worse again

Expand chart
Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Note: Due to a database error, Missouri had a 3 day gap in reporting from Oct. 11-13; Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Every available piece of data proves it: The coronavirus pandemic is getting worse again, all across America.

The big picture: As the death toll ticks past 212,000, at a moment when containing the virus ought to be easier and more urgent than ever, we are instead giving it a bigger foothold to grow from.

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