In addition to the inverted yield curve, there's another recession indicator Americans should be watching, analysts say: the value of corporate equities that households and non-profits own.

Why it matters: While prices have largely climbed back, households are still holding off on buying. Much of 2019's pickup in stock prices has been driven by corporate buybacks.

Details: How much of corporate equities that households and non-profits own as a share of U.S. GDP fell from its highs at the end of the year. It dropped in the last quarter of 2018 as equity prices fell and households sold shares.

  • Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said institutions, hedge funds and private clients have been selling equities for 9 weeks straight.
  • Deutsche Bank this week said its clients were rotating into bonds and out of equity funds.

The bottom line: "Sharp upward spikes in household equity valuations have often preceded recessions," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Cambridge Global Payments, tells Axios.

  • "The value of U.S. household investment as a share of GDP tends to peak just before a recession, meaning that the average person is over-invested at the top, and under-invested at the bottom of each cycle."

Go deeper: Will the yield curve lead to recession? It really is different this time

Go deeper

Updated 7 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of noon ET: 20,391,697 — Total deaths: 744,211— Total recoveries: 12,625,076Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 a.m. ET: 5,161,612 — Total deaths: 164,690 — Total recoveries: 1,714,960 — Total tests: 63,252,257Map.
  3. Business: U.S. already feeling effects of ending unemployment benefits — U.S. producer prices rose last month by the most since October 2018.
  4. Public health: America is flying blind on its coronavirus response.
  5. Education: Gallup: America's confidence in public school system jumps to highest level since 2004.
  6. World: Lebanon reports coronavirus record, UN warns Beirut blast may drive cases higher
37 mins ago - World

U.S. threatens to veto UN peacekeeping in Lebanon over Hezbollah concerns

Peacekeepers with Lebanese troops in southern Lebanon. Photo: Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty

The Trump administration is threatening to veto a resolution to extend the UN's long-standing peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon if its mandate isn't changed, Israeli and U.S. officials tell me.

Why it matters: The U.S. is the main funder of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which has an annual budget of $250 million. The veto threat is a tactical move, and part of a broader effort to put pressure on Iran and its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah.

Trump congratulates QAnon conspiracy theorist on GOP runoff win

Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump on Wednesday tweeted congratulations to Marjorie Taylor Greene, a vocal QAnon conspiracy theorist who won the Republican nomination in Georgia's deep-red 14th Congressional District runoff.

Why it matters: The president's approval illustrates how the once-fringe conspiracy theory has gained ground within the GOP. Greene is among the at least 11 GOP candidates for Congress who have openly supported or defended the QAnon movement or some of its tenets, per Axios' Jacob Knutson.