Tech industry winners and losers are emerging amid the Trump administration's flurry of trade moves this week.

Why it matters: President Trump's chaotic approach to trade and industrial policy is making it far from certain whether the tech industry's bet on this administration will pay off.

Here's a look at the recent trade moves that could upend the tech industry.

1. Copper tariffs: Trump this week said he'll impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, which would heavily impact data centers that rely on the metal for their cooling and power distribution systems.

• "Copper is necessary for Semiconductors, Aircraft, Ships, Ammunition, Data Centers, Lithium-ion Batteries, Radar Systems, Missile Defense Systems, and even, Hypersonic Weapons, of which we are building many," Trump posted on Truth Social Wednesday.
• "Why did our foolish (and SLEEPY!) 'Leaders' decimate this important Industry?"

What they're saying: "This is a terrible idea and will have a significant impact on the tech sector," said the Cato Institute's Matt Mittelsteadt. "Fundamentally, digital technology and AI rely on data centers — and data centers depend on copper."

• Peterson Institute for International Economics' Cullen Hendrix told Axios the larger companies will be able to bear increased copper prices more easily than the smaller players and the tariffs could ultimately delay construction.

2. Semiconductor tariffs: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the Section 232 national security investigation will be completed at the end of this month and Trump will announce details on tariffs then.

• "He's said if you don't build in America they're going to be a high rate," Lutnick said Tuesday on CNBC.
• "But he may consider that if you're building in America, to give you time to build ... say a year, year and a half, possibly even two years of building, and then the tariff will be much higher."

Flashback: The semiconductor industry scored a couple of key wins in the reconciliation bill that Trump signed into law last week with provisions aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing.

• Lawmakers increased the advanced manufacturing investment credit from 25% to 35% and restored the full deductibility of domestic R&D expenditures.

3. Digital Services Taxes: After Trump got Canada to stand down on its digital services taxes by halting trade talks with the country, the tech industry started closely watching to see if the administration would follow the same playbook for other deals.

• Governments across the world collected $2.8 billion from digital service taxes in 2024, per new data released by CCIA, and approximately $9.1 billion in the last five years across the U.K., France, Italy, Spain and Canada.
• CCIA said in a statement it "was active in providing calculations to the White House on the cost of Canada's DSTs ahead of President Trump's announcement which led to negotiations ending the taxes."

What we're watching: Digital trade is likely to keep playing a role in how deals with other countries get hashed out, and we're tracking what happens with Japan, South Korea and Brazil next.

• A South Korean lawmaker told Reuters on Monday it would likely "slow down" its plans for tech antitrust legislation in light of sensitive trade talks.
• Trump called for a Section 301 investigation and cited Brazil's digital trade and social media policies in his letter to the country announcing tariffs.

A group that advises administration officials on trade and labor policy is pushing the Trump administration to prioritize U.S. workers in its approach to remain competitive in AI.

Why it matters: The Labor Advisory Committee for Trade Negotiations and Trade Policy this week sent a letter to BIS Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler about the White House's decision to scrap the AI diffusion rule.

• That Biden-era framework was designed to thwart China's access to the most advanced tech used for AI development, and this administration wants its own approach.

"AI has already raised issues about surveillance in the workplace, algorithmic bias in hiring, content theft and unauthorized digital replication of individuals' voices and likenesses, displacement of workers and many other concerns," advisory committee staff chair Michael Wessel wrote in the July 8 letter.

• Wessel is the liaison for the United Steelworkers union, which has benefited from Trump's tariffs on steel imports, to the labor advisory committee.
• "We want to ensure that, as the Department of Commerce proceeds with its plan to replace the AI Diffusion Framework, that maximum attention is given to keeping companies from outsourcing our advantage in AI infrastructure to foreign jurisdictions," Wessel added.

Between the lines: The advisory committee's goals are likely to land well with the Trump administration, which wants to onshore production.

• Opponents of sectoral tariffs say onshoring and boosting domestic production would take too long to meet urgent demands.

What we're watching: Replacements for the AI diffusion rule could be part of the White House's AI action plan, which is due by July 22.

The Senate Appropriations Committee has yet to approve its FY26 Commerce-Justice-Science bill after a dispute over the FBI headquarters tanked the legislation's prospects at today's markup.

Why it matters: The bill would have avoided some of the deepest cuts in President Trump's proposed FY 2026 budget, which sought to massively slash key science and tech agencies, but is hung up on one issue.

• House Republicans are expected to follow Trump's lead and take an axe to funding for science, tech and R&D in their approps bill.
• The Senate Approps Committee had initially approved their bill in a 21-6 vote, with Democrats taking issue over the Trump administration's decision to move the FBI building to the Ronald Reagan Building instead of the previously approved location in Greenbelt, Maryland.

Driving the news: CJS panel Ranking Member Chris Van Hollen proposed an amendment to prohibit the use of federal dollars to relocate the HQ to anywhere but Greenbelt.

• That passed on a 15-14 vote, with Sen. Lisa Murkowski joining Democrats to adopt the amendment.
• As a result, several senators on both sides of the aisle changed their vote on the CJS bill.
• Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins then called a "long recess" to hold the bill, with the intent to take up the legislation where it left off during a later markup.

As for the funding details, here's a quick breakdown of the Senate Approps FY26 bill for the National Science Foundation, per lawmakers at Thursday's markup:

• Van Hollen said the text provides $9 billion for NSF.
• That's a "minimal cut" of $60 million, or a 0.67% decrease, per CJS Chair Jerry Moran.
• Trump's budget called for a $4.9 billion cut for NSF, or a whopping 55.8% decrease.

What they're saying: "I would describe this bill, I don't know what normal is around here, but if something's normal, this is as close to being normal as what this committee would do and what this subcommittee has done in the past," Moran said.

• Van Hollen: "We were able to make smart and targeted investments ... to advance U.S. leadership in science and innovation."

What we're watching: We're still waiting on the text for this bill, as well as the House GOP's version.

• It's going to be a messy appropriations season, and government funding runs out Sept. 30.