photo illustration: Tiffany Herring/Axios; Photo: Kym Illman/Getty Images
If there is a second Trump administration, expect anti-Big Tech rhetoric to ratchet up and proponents of AI deregulation to take charge of policy.
The big picture: Tech has long been a space that has agreement in unexpected places and sharp divergence in others, and there's no definitive way to describe "Republican" or "Democratic" tech policy.
- Now Trump, prone to changing his mind on a whim, brings along Sen. JD Vance, whose views toward tech embrace populism and skepticism of the biggest, richest companies.
- "I get the impression [Vance] has a vision for the next generation of the internet, one not beholden by internet search companies and app stores," Republican tech consultant Nathan Leamer told Axios.
Here are some areas we're watching in tech policy should Trump and Vance win this November:
AI regulation: The GOP party platform states Republicans want to repeal President Biden's executive order on AI, and Vance is on record as worried that AI regulation would entrench the biggest companies.
- One tech industry source said reversing the EO would likely be largely inconsequential because it will be too difficult to reverse most of the instructions and agency reporting requirements.
- But a Trump administration could remove the reporting requirements for companies with dual-use foundation models.
- Trump's AI approach is likely to have a greater focus on the national security priorities of AI given competition with China and a more full-throated defense of open source development, Neil Chilson, a former FTC technologist, told Axios.
- Venture capitalists who have pledged to bankroll Trump say he's made promises to help "little tech" and shape AI policy in the ways they see fit.
TikTok: Trump started the process that led TikTok to where it is today — facing a ban in the United States if it doesn't divest from its Chinese owner ByteDance should it lose a court challenge with the Justice Department.
- But Trump says he no longer wants to ban TikTok.
- He told Bloomberg in an interview published this month he's "for TikTok" now for the sake of increased competition with Meta.
Antitrust: Many of the Big Tech cases that continue today began under the Trump administration. FTC chair Lina Khan and DOJ antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter have aggressively ramped that up, angering pro-business types in the process.
- Don't expect a Trump-Vance administration to take a different tack, sources tell Axios.
- Both men have derided Big Tech consolidation and power, though their motivations for doing so — which are often about perceived bias — differ from Khan and Kanter.
- "There's some differences around procedure and the rhetoric that may be coming from enforcers, but it could be an indication that there'd be more of the same," Mark Meador, a partner at Kressin Meador Powers and former antitrust counsel to Sen. Mike Lee, told Axios.
- Personnel will determine antitrust policy, Meador said, and a Trump-Vance ticket would have to consider "how aggressive" they want their hires to be.
Section 230 and content moderation: Trump's complaints about Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act and charges of social media company bias were mainstays of his first administration.
- Sources tell Axios to expect some of the same rhetoric, but that Section 230 reform will still be hard to come by considering the tenor of recent Supreme Court cases around content moderation.
- Trump may also back off on Section 230, given his own Truth Social relies on it to function. But he may not, given it makes Big Tech an easy target.
Industrial policy: Implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act is likely to continue without major interruptions, especially as investments start coming to fruition in key states like Ohio and Arizona.
- Export controls are becoming a major component of tech policy as national security concerns ramp up, and managing where sensitive technologies like AI and quantum go will likely continue under Trump.
- Some in the industry are concerned that Biden is "nowhere on trade," said a source granted anonymity in order to speak freely, and companies hope a Trump administration would focus on opening up customer bases in new markets for U.S. tech companies instead of taking a restrictive approach.
- But a Trump White House would likely mean an aggressive, protectionist trade policy.
Broadband: Vance backed the now-expired Affordable Connectivity Program, an internet discount program that more than 23 million Americans had come to rely on.
- But a Trump administration would face the same dynamics on the Hill that Biden has, where there is little appetite among Republicans to spend money.
- The FCC's Title II reclassification of internet as an essential service, a move to boost regulation over the industry, is likely to be reversed under a Trump administration.
- The FCC could also be expected to push for Big Tech companies to pay into the Universal Service Fund, an idea backed by the likely chair Brendan Carr and Democrats and Republicans on the Hill.
Privacy: The push to pass a federal privacy bill is at a standstill after efforts blew up in the House.
- Pro-business interests and advocacy groups will surely keep pushing for a federal standard no matter who's in the White House.
