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A Union Pacific acquisition of Norfolk Southern isn't just expected to force rival BNSF into an eventual acquisition of CSX. 

Why it matters: A rail megamerger also could clear the way for consolidation in related industries, including intermodal trucking.

The latest: Intermodal giant Hub Group released a statement in support of the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern deal, which faces regulatory review.

Between the lines: "They can't make enemies," Cambridge Capital managing partner Ben Gordon tells Axios Pro.

Rail shippers who are against the deal will likely let their trade groups oppose it for them, rather than speaking out themselves.

"They're dependent on those relationships," he adds. Intermodal trucking companies use railroads to ship containers, often over long distances, handling the truck hauls on either end.

Railroads are notorious for being slower than trucks with less reliable service, but the cost and environmental impacts are lower.

What they're saying: "All the shippers are concerned about this rail consolidation, because that means bargaining power shifts disproportionately to the rail side," Gordon tells Axios Pro. 

Hub Group is likely asking itself "'How do I get bigger, whether that's through acquisitions, truck brokerage or intermodal, or other adjacencies?' That's a natural response," Gordon says.

Beyond Hub Group, "on the trucking and truck brokerage and freight management side, this will be a catalyst for a lot more activity there," he says.

Large shippers will spend the next six to 12 months making sure they have alternatives in place in case of higher rates and lower service.

What we're watching: Hub Group has become an acquirer of choice in recent years, and its priorities include growth via M&A, Stifel analysts J. Bruce Chan, Matthew Milask, Andrew Cox and Pernille Buhl wrote in an investor note.

The carrier has more free cash flow than its peers and could make a deal for one of several large private players or public subsidiaries with a value of $1 billion or more, they wrote. 

Hub Group's acquisition targets " are likely to add scale and density, as well as customer diversification," the analysts wrote.

One possibility is Forward Air's intermodal unit, as Forward Air is in talks for a takeover and could be a seller.

The bottom line: "The point is, there are lots of possibilities, and Hub Group has the resources to seize them," the Stifel analysts wrote.

Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern would have M&A ripple effects beyond railroads

A rail megamerger also could clear the way for consolidation in related industries, including intermodal trucking.

Illustration of a train with cash flying out of it.

A Union Pacific acquisition of Norfolk Southern isn&#x27;t just expected to force rival BNSF <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="into an eventual acquisition" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/pro/supply-chain-deals/2025/07/23/union-pacific-norfolk-southern-deal-bnsf-surface-transportation-board" data-vars-content-id="71c0de41-2fa2-47b8-a68b-fb97e22e3d92" data-vars-headline="Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern would have M&amp;A ripple effects beyond railroads" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/pro/supply-chain-deals/2025/07/23/union-pacific-norfolk-southern-deal-bnsf-surface-transportation-board" target="_self">into an eventual acquisition</a> of CSX. Why it matters: A rail megamerger also could clear the way for consolidation in related industries, including intermodal trucking.

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Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern would have M&A ripple effects beyond railroads

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