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The U.S.-China tariff truce this week should bring 90 days of relief to importers and carriers, but not so much for dealmakers.

Why it matters: Supply chain deal activity has slowed to a crawl, with some notable exceptions, as logistics providers grapple with muddied forecasts.

What they're saying: "The initial tariffs introduced uncertainty that will last for long after any deal is finalized," Schematic Ventures founder Julian Counihan tells Axios. "I don't believe any company will move off a wait-and-see position given this week's news."

State of play: Ocean shipping rates are expected to soar, followed by trucking rates, as importers pounce on another reprieve from tariffs so high they effectively represented a trade embargo between the U.S. and China.

But that might come too late to prevent fire-sale deals or bankruptcies for port truckers and other haulers that have already struggled through a three-year freight recession.

Flashback: The pandemic and its ensuing disruption proved that money is more fungible than supply chains, Carlyle Group head of global research and investment strategy Jason Thomas writes in a report.

A household could spend money earmarked for a cruise on camping equipment or a hot tub instead, Thomas notes.

But it was not as easy to transform that unused cruise ship capacity into tents, sleeping bags, air jets or spa pumps.

"Thankfully, the 'truce' should spare us having to relearn the same lesson again in a somewhat different context," Thomas tells Axios.

What's next: "For quite a number of our clients, major strategic decisions are moving more slowly as trade and supply chain uncertainty persists," KPMG partner Todd Dubner writes in a May 8 report.

"We believe major deals that are currently underway will continue to progress," he adds. "On the flip side, prospective dealmaking has significantly slowed."

US-China tariff truce not a panacea for supply chain deals

Deal activity has slowed to a crawl, with some notable exceptions, as logistics providers grapple with muddied forecasts.

Photo illustration of a collage featuring Xi Jinping and Donald Trump over a red and blue background.

Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photos: Antoine Gyori Corbis via Getty Images and Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The U.S.-China <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="tariff truce" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2025/05/12/us-china-tariffs-trade-deal-trump" data-vars-content-id="ed5fa375-bf8d-4206-8a65-c9bbb4b061c9" data-vars-headline="US-China tariff truce not a panacea for supply chain deals" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2025/05/12/us-china-tariffs-trade-deal-trump" target="_self">tariff truce</a> this week should bring 90 days of relief to importers and carriers, but not so much for dealmakers.Why it matters: Supply chain deal activity has slowed to a crawl, with some <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="notable exceptions" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/pro/supply-chain-deals/2025/04/25/16b-ups-deal-taps-lucrative-medical-shipment-market" data-vars-content-id="ed5fa375-bf8d-4206-8a65-c9bbb4b061c9" data-vars-headline="US-China tariff truce not a panacea for supply chain deals" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/pro/supply-chain-deals/2025/04/25/16b-ups-deal-taps-lucrative-medical-shipment-market" target="_self">notable exceptions</a>, as logistics providers grapple with muddied forecasts.

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US-China tariff truce not a panacea for supply chain deals

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