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It's safe to say "climate"

Illustrated collage with three business people in the center of the image with pieces of money, wind turbines, solar panels, and smoke stacks radiating outwards. 

Post-midterm vital signs

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Anthropic hits the gas

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Driving the day

🚨 Deals Deals Deals!

Final numbers

Last week's Democratic sweep is lifting a two-year stigma on corporate climate spending, investors and consultants tell Axios Pro. 

Between the lines: They foresee a rebound in low-carbon investment, although not a revival of the 2018-2022 boom.

Context: Dealmaking slowed during President Trump's first two years back in office as congressional Republicans investigated banks, nonprofits and others over their green initiatives. (AI-related investment was an exception).

"There were things people were afraid to talk about because they were afraid they'd get hauled in front of Congress," explains Matt Eggers, managing director at climate-focused Prelude Ventures. "We're not going back to how things were, [but] we've hit the bottom, and we're on the upswing."

Zoom in: Eggers is focused on sectors left out of the AI data center buildout, such as carbon removal, food and agriculture, and efficient manufacturing.

Reality check: Between rising interest rates, general economic jitters and the inertia of conventional wisdom, "affordability is the crux of everything," says Frank Maisano, a partner at Bracewell's Policy Resolution Group. 

What we're watching: Climate legislation drafted now could gain traction under a future Democratic administration, even if Trump is unlikely to sign it.

"The Inflation Reduction Act, a lot of that stuff was written under divided government, and then it passed when Democrats had the White House," says Brandon Hurlbut, co-founder of Overture VC and policy shop Boundary Stone Partners. 

1. It's safe to say "climate"

Democratic gains in the Texas and Wisconsin state legislatures could mean tighter oversight of health care deals and changes to which services get reimbursed.

What they're saying: "We've already seen a number of red and blue states put in place either new or strengthened transaction review processes," says McDermott Will & Schulte partner Travis Jackson. 

"If I am concerned about something from just a deal flow and timing standpoint, it's the proliferation of those state processes." 

Zoom in: Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers proposed ownership disclosure requirements in his 2025-27 budget, but lawmakers stripped them from the final legislation.

Democrats now control the governor's office and both legislative chambers, potentially clearing a path for more oversight.

In Texas, Republicans retained the state Senate, but Democrats won the House. Lawmakers could revive a 2025 proposal requiring advance notice to the attorney general — soon to be a Democrat — of certain health care deals.

Zoom out: Thirty-five states already have some form of health care transaction review law, per a May report from Greenberg Traurig.

2. Post-midterm vital signs

Anthropic's push to power its data centers with natural gas could hit new roadblocks following Democrats' midterm victories.

Why it matters: Anthropic is gearing up for its IPO roadshow, which could begin as early as tomorrow.

Driving the news: Anthropic struck a $3.4 billion deal to secure 1.7 gigawatts of natural gas generators for its data centers, the Financial Times reported yesterday.

It's the largest known single purchase of power-generation equipment by an AI lab. 

Anthropic took over orders for Caterpillar generators that previously were placed by OnePWR Solutions, rather than purchasing electricity direct from the supplier.

Catch up quick: Anthropic struck the deal in late September, weeks before the midterms brought new political opposition to the $10 trillion AI infrastructure buildout.

Anthropic has previously said it's working with Fluidstack to develop data centers in Texas and New York, with more sites to come.

Texas accounts for 41% of new U.S. data center capacity in 2028, according to the research firm SemiAnalysis.

Anthropic revealed in its S-1 that some of its planned data centers, which it calls Anthropic Direct, will rely on dedicated on-site gas generation.

Zoom in: Texas data center projects could face delays following Gina Hinojosa's surprise gubernatorial win.

Hinojosa campaigned on maintaining a construction moratorium until lawmakers address environmental concerns in the legislative session ending in mid-2027.

Texas had already expanded its environmental permitting pause to address on-site power generation, which requires air permits when fossil fuels are burned. 

The bottom line: Securing its own power could give Anthropic more control over its AI expansion, while exposing it to new regulatory risks tied to on-site energy development.

3. Anthropic hits the gas

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

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Huang's scandal exposes Nvidia's dependence on its superstar CEO.

New inflation figures could dash market relief hopes.

4. Driving the day

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👉 GO HERE TO CATCH UP on deals since this morning's Pro Rata, including: 

Nominal, an Austin, Texas-based maker of manufacturing software, raised $240m in Series C funding at a $3b valuation. Lightspeed and Insight Partners led, joined by Lux Capital, Sequoia, General Catalyst, Founders Fund, Avenir, Salesforce Ventures, M13, Lockheed Martin Ventures, Red Glass Ventures, PSP Growth, and Deployment Capital. Go deeper

Morgan Stanley agreed to acquire Vinyl Equity, a Winnetka, Ill.-based transfer agent that had raised around $31m from Jump Capital, Index Ventures, and MUFG Innovation Partners. Go deeper

Windward Bio Group, a Swiss developer of antibodies for respiratory and dermatologic diseases, set IPO terms at 10.3m shares for $16-18. It would have a $1b fully diluted value at the midpoint, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (WWB). The Phase 2/3 biotech has raised $365m from OrbiMed, Novo Holdings, Blue Owl, SR One, Omega Funds, RTW Investments, Qiming Venture Partners, Quan Capital, Pivotal bioVenture Partners, RA Capital Management, Janus Henderson Investors, Sanofi Ventures, and Harbour BioMed. Go deeper

November 09, 2026

1. It's safe to say "climate"