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Scoop: Baseten in talks to raise at $26B valuation

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Scoop: Olive oil brand Graza for sale 

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Iambic's IPO test

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Supply chain resilience math

Driving the day

🚨 Deals Deals Deals!

Final word

AI inference startup Baseten has been approached about doubling its valuation to about $26 billion, just three months after its last round, sources tell Axios Pro.

Why it matters: Inference AI company valuations are defying traditional venture timelines.

Zoom in: The inference infrastructure company has surpassed $1 billion in annualized revenue, per the sources. 

It's a rapid jump for the company, which raised a $1.5 billion Series F in a dual-tiered round in June, at $11 billion and $13 billion valuations.

It had some $600 million in annualized revenue at the end of the first quarter, per the Information.

Baseten's customers include Cursor, Clay, and Notion.

Its lead investors include Greylock, IVP, Spark Capital, Bond, Capital G, Altimeter Capital, Conviction Partners, Sands Capital, and Wellington Management. Nvidia also backs the business.

What they're saying: "We are trying to give our customers the ability to run these models when they don't necessarily have access to the infrastructure teams of the frontier labs," CEO Tuhin Srivastava told Bloomberg in late June.

State of play: Companies that aim to make the process of inference cheaper and faster are gathering billions.

Together AI, often cited as a competitor to Baseten, raised $800 million at an $8.3 billion valuation in July. Fireworks raised $1.5 billion at a $17.5 billion valuation that same month.

Following its $20 billion licensing deal, Groq inked an agreement to raise up to $650 million as it transitioned from chips toward an AI inference neocloud business.

On the chips side, Positron AI raised at a $5 billion valuation in a dual-tranched round this month, while Etched raised at a $21 billion valuation in August, a month after hitting $10.3 billion.

Zoom out: The technological catch-up by open models has also given startups such as Baseten a boost, as open-weight models generally lack infrastructure.

Baseten did not respond to a request for comment.

1. Scoop: Baseten in talks to raise at $26B valuation

Graza, a VC-backed olive oil brand, hired Lazard to explore a sale, Axios Pro has learned.

Inside the room: Graza generates $30 million of EBITDA and is seeking a multiple between 15x and 20x, valuing it between $450 million and $600 million, sources say.

Catch up quick: Known for its signature green squeeze bottles, Graza sells its extra virgin olive oil in "Frizzle," "Drizzle," and "Sizzle" varieties available in grocery stores and via an online subscription.

It was founded in 2020 and has raised about $3 million from BFG Partners, Brand Foundry Ventures, the Cashmere Fund, JPMorgan's growth equity fund, and Watchfire Ventures, per PitchBook.

Co-founder Andrew Benin told Forbes last year the company had a $240 million valuation, without disclosing details.

Friction point: Graza says it sources 97% of its olive oil from Jaen, Spain — and its reliance on a few high-quality growers leaves it vulnerable to a bad harvest, a banker tells Axios Pro.

Zoom in: Oil and condiment deals have been a mixed bag.

Like Graza, condiment maker Bachan's built a viral following before Marzetti acquired it for $400 million in May.

Solum Partners sold California Olive Ranch to Australian olive company Cobram Estate Olives for about $174 million in March.

Butterfly Equity sought $600 million for its Chosen Foods avocado oil brand in 2024 but didn't get a deal done.

2. Scoop: Olive oil brand Graza for sale

Iambic Therapeutics filed for an IPO last night, as it seeks to advance cancer therapies.

Why it matters: This will test investor demand for AI drug discovery, as investors shift their focus from faster development to better drugs.

How it works: Iambic pairs AI drug-design models with automated wet labs to rapidly design and test new candidates.

Its lead candidate, IAM1363, is a Phase 1/1b oral small molecule inhibitor of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 for the treatment of breast and other cancers.

Two other cancer candidates are in earlier development stages.

Zoom in: Iambic's technology is also being used by Takeda, Lundbeck and Revolution Medicines. Yesterday it announced a deal with AbbVie.

Zoom out: Nasdaq-listed peers are trading well below their IPO share prices.

Recursion is down roughly 78%, from $18 to $3.97, while Absci is down about 39%, from $16 to $9.82. 

Analysts are seeking hard evidence that AI-designed drug candidates are "better rather than just cheaper," as Morgan Stanley's Sean Laaman said during a Recursion presentation this month. 

Follow the money: Founded in 2019, Iambic has raised more than $461 million. Shareholders with 5% or more stake include Catalio, Nexus Ventures, Q Healthcare, Nvidia and Coatue.

Over the summer, it raised a $66.5 million convertible promissory note from new investors KKR, Insight Partners, Perceptive Advisors, Millennium Management and Laurion Capital.

Iambic reported a $50.1 million net loss in the six months ended June 30, up from $33.2 million in the same time period a year ago. 

3. Iambic's IPO test

Data: Axios analysis of FactSet transcripts; Note: Counts earnings calls referencing dual sourcing, multiple suppliers or other forms of supplier diversification; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios

For decades, businesses assumed that shipping lanes would stay open, trade agreements would endure, and major international relationships would remain stable.

Why it matters: The economy increasingly rewards resilience over efficiency — a shift that increases costs, complicates investment decisions and may weigh on long-term growth.

State of play: Companies are responding to a more volatile world by carrying more inventory, securing backup suppliers and building more flexibility into their supply chains — choices that would have looked unnecessarily expensive a decade ago.

"In the first half of the year, we added new sources for over 50 constrained parts, and we plan to add another 50 in the second half of 2026, increasing the number of multi-sourced components by 15% this year alone," Honeywell Aerospace CEO Jim Currier said last month. 

Zoom in: Renewed emphasis on resilience bodes well for the valuations of logistics providers and supply chain tech firms, even as it may weigh on retailers' balance sheets.

Container carriers, trucking companies and logistics firms took in record profits post-pandemic as demand soared from customers struggling to keep shelves stocked. 

Banning diesel exports, an idea President Trump just endorsed, could complicate the picture for domestic carriers, which collect fuel surcharges that can exceed what they pay at the pump.

4. Supply chain resilience math

🏦 Exclusive: AI enters the vault (Ryan Lawler)

Go.AI, which sells AI hardware appliances to banks, raised $85 million.

💰Exclusive: Protecting CPG margins (Chris Metinko)

Confido raised a $55 million Series B led by Insight Partners

🏡 Exclusive: Mortgage calls answered (Ryan Lawler)

Voice agent startup Sela raised $21 million.

🇸🇬 Exclusive: Singapore fuel push (Colin Campbell)

Ofiniti bought ZeroNorth, expanding in the top maritime fuel hub.

🪬Exclusive: Before the clinic (Natalie Breymeyer)

Fertility startup Bird&Be raised $13 million to reach patients earlier.

The health AI scribe company raised $340 million.

It signed a $1 billion-plus deal with AI drug developer Envisagenics.

🔬 Advanced microscopes cash (Zachery Eanes)

Ramona Optics raised $25 million for computational microscopes.

👀 California pressure point (Sara Fischer)

Paramount Skydance's Ellison found leverage over California's AG.

5. Driving the day

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👉 GO HERE TO CATCH UP on deals since this morning's Pro Rata, including:

 Mirendil, an SF-based self-improving AI model developer launched by former Anthropic researchers, is in talks to raise at a $5b valuation led by Kleiner Perkins, per Bloomberg. Go deeper

Blackstone and EQT completed their $6.6b buyout of Spanish waste management firm Urbaser from Platinum Equity. Go deeper

SMT Energy, a Boulder, Colo.-based developer of battery energy storage systems, secured up to $268m in equity from Climate Adaptive Infrastructure. Go deeper

6. 🚨 Deals Deals Deals!

 "Climate is certainly a footnote. It keeps me up at night."

— J.B. Straubel, CEO of Redwood Materials and Tesla's former CTO,  discussing the tone of Climate Week with Axios' Mike Allen

7. Final word

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September 22, 2026

1. Scoop: Baseten in talks to raise at $26B valuation