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Prediction market startups pick their layer

The week that was

🚨 Deals deals deals

Credit score

Quote of the week

The rush into sports prediction markets has startups choosing between owning the regulated infrastructure or owning the customer relationship. 

The big picture: Exchanges need the order flow that brokers and partners deliver, while brokers need deep, reliable markets behind the screen.

Earlier this week, ProphetX raised $35 million to provide the regulated exchange, clearing and liquidity behind other companies' prediction-market products.

CEO Dean Sisun says ProphetX could grow faster through partners than by spending "hundreds of millions, if not billions," chasing the same retail users scaled rivals already have on board.

The other side: Onyx Odds, which raised $20 million in June, took the opposite route by plugging into Kraken parent Payward's derivatives infrastructure rather than pursuing its own DCM.

Founder Leul Dadi said he would "much rather be Robinhood than the New York Stock Exchange," offering consumers a broader menu of products while relying on others for the exchange layer.

The bottom line: The models depend on each other, so there's a need for both. 

1 big thing: Prediction market startups pick their layer

Illustration of a stack of hundred dollar bills underneath a football field. 

Our fintech stories this week ranged from PayPal's takeover saga to new bets on prediction markets and AI.

💳 PayPal beat earnings expectations, putting pressure on Stripe and Advent to sweeten their $53 billion bid. Go deeper

🤝 ICE acquired MarketAxess for $6 billion, creating a major force in electronic bond trading. Go deeper

💸 Freehand raised $75 million to automate supplier payments. Go deeper

📣 Jana Partners urged Fiserv to sell more non-core assets and refresh its board. Go deeper

🤖 Portage CEO Adam Felesky said the most defensible AI fintechs will be deeply embedded in regulated financial services workflows. Go deeper

2. The week that was

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👉 GO HERE TO CATCH UP on all the fintech deals this week.

Whatnot, an LA-based live-shopping platform for collectibles, is raising new funding at around a $20b valuation, per Business Insider. Last year it raised at $11.5b led by DST Global. Go deeper

Abry Partners is making an initial $75m investment into the North American business of French payments firm Edenred (Paris: EDEN). Go deeper

Bain Capital and Carlyle are each seeking to buy Wealth Enhancement, a Tucson, Ariz.-based wealth manager with $160b in client assets, from TA Associates and Onex Partners, per the FT. Go deeper

3. 🚨 Deals deals deals

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✂️ Visa will cut 2,600 jobs as it revamps the payments company. (WSJ)

🎲 Robinhood is in talks to add Crypto.com prediction markets. (The Block)

🏗️ Crypto companies with large token treasuries are pivoting toward data centers and AI infrastructure. (Bloomberg)

💳 Cross River will power Elon Musk's X Money service. (Finovate)

🎲 A federal judge blocked Minnesota from enforcing its new ban on prediction markets. (Reuters)

📱 Western Union shut down its digital banking service. (PYMNTS)

₿ BitMart will shut down its crypto exchange after nine years. (CoinDesk)

4. Credit score

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"Given Fiserv's large and diverse collection of assets, we are convinced that a comprehensive review, rather than a piecemeal, asset-by-asset approach, is the best way to unlock value."

— Scott Ostfeld, managing partner at Jana Partners, in a letter to Fiserv urging the payments company to review its entire portfolio

5. Quote of the week

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August 01, 2026

1 big thing: Prediction market startups pick their layer