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Once tariffs are priced in, dealmaking could uncork, one private equity analyst tells Axios Pro.

Why it matters: Uncertainty has stifled M&A in 2025, but deals are ready and waiting for the right moment.

What they're saying: "I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty strong third and fourth quarter," Jason Thomas, head of global research and investment strategy at Carlyle, tells Axios Pro.

The slowdown is thanks to "information costs," he says.

"It's not that deals aren't happening — it's that tariff uncertainty makes it harder to get comfortable with the underlying economics."

"Once you get to a place where you feel like you understand the risk, you feel like you're adequately compensated for the risk, you're willing to transact," he says.

Between the lines: Carlyle might be more insulated from tariffs than other firms. This month, CEO Harvey Mitchell Schwartz told investors that 80% of Carlyle's portfolio companies are based in the U.S.

By the numbers: By late February, global M&A was on track to be down 24% year-over-year, according to Barrons.

Private equity, however, is only expected to see deal flow rise 1% this year after an increase of 23% last year, according to research from EY-Parthenon published in April.

That's still down 13% below the 2018-19 average.

Yes, but: The Trump administration is anything but predictable. Can you really price-in a tariff that could change in an instant?

The bottom line: "If you need absolute certainty to transact, you shouldn't be in this business," Thomas says.

Carlyle analyst hopeful deals will flow again soon

Uncertainty is stifling M&A, but deals are ready and waiting for the right moment.

Illustration of coins flowing out of a champagne bottle.

Once tariffs are priced in, dealmaking could uncork, one private equity analyst tells Axios Pro.Why it matters: Uncertainty has stifled M&amp;A in 2025, but deals are ready and waiting for the right moment.

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Carlyle analyst hopeful deals will flow again soon

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