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Nielsen's fall from grace has been abundantly clear. The deals that media executives have inked with other measurement companies were a clear sign of the company's tumble. That will all be on display this week during the Upfronts, Kerry writes.

Why it matters: The media marketplace is trying to shake free from its reliance on Nielsen — or any one currency — to value their inventory. It could also make the process of buying and selling ads far more complicated.  

Catch up quick: ViacomCBS announced a new partnership with VideoAmp last year. NBCUniversal and WarnerMedia (which is now under Warner Bros. Discovery) both linked up with iSpot.tv.

Disney is testing new measurement solutions with nearly 100 vendors including iSpot.tv, LiveRamp, VideoAmp, Viant and Moat. It named Samba TV as an official partner in March. 

Yes, but: Nielsen isn't gone. Disney is working with Nielsen on a new product via trials with ad agency Publicis Groupe. Fox's Tubi is expanding its relationship with Nielsen.

"Nielsen has been working with big data for almost a decade. We combine that with a high-quality panel to correct for the biases," Amenah Atai, general manager of digital and advanced TV for Nielsen, said during the company's virtual NewFront event earlier this month. 

What they're saying: In a March research note, Craig Huber Associates threw shade on the narrative that Nielsen is losing market share to startups. 

"...Despite the headlines, none of the large ad holding companies have even hinted at bailing on Nielsen and they are the ultimate arbiters in video measurement," the firm's analyst Doug Arthur wrote. 

Linda Yaccarino, NBCU's chairman of global advertising and partnerships, told Tim during our Axios Pro live event earlier this month that the landscape is changing quickly. 

"As the consumer has moved at lightning speed, across platforms, across screens, across distribution vehicles, measurement hasn't been able to keep up," she said.

What's next: Whatever changes may be brewing at Nielsen will be overseen by the company's new private equity owners.

1. 🔥 Nielsen under fire

Illustration of the Nielsen logo with all shapes pointing down.

Don't expect Netflix's plans for an ad-supported version to have much of an impact on the Upfront market, Tim reports.

Why it matters: As more and more streaming platforms bring in advertisers, that will only ratchet up the competition for the $70 billion that is spent in TV advertising.

The latest: The sentiment among ad buyers is that there remain too many unknowns around Netflix's ad model to earmark any significant amount of their client's money. 

Even so, just the fact that Netflix is even a discussion topic during the Upfronts is proof of just how much — and how quickly — things have changed for the besieged streaming leader.

"I can't hold back significant dollars in hopes that all those things fall into place," Dave Campanelli, Horizon Media's chief investment officer, tells Axios. "I could put significant money there, and if it doesn't happen, then I'm left holding a big chunk of money that I'm having a hard time getting down because I missed the upfront."

What's next: A source at Netflix cautioned that the ad plan is still very much in its infancy.

Netflix first has to get a sales team in place for them to be taken seriously as a place for ad dollars. The company has held talks with The Trade Desk about the buildout, according to the New York Times. 

2. 🐘 Will Netflix crash budgets?

Illustration of the Netflix logo turning into a question mark and back. 

The amount of ad dollars that are actually spent related to upfront commitments has remained fairly static over the past few years, according to data from Insider Intelligence's eMarketer.

Why it matters: Upfront advertising accounts for anywhere between 25%-27% of the more than $70 billion that is spent on TV advertising each year.  

By the numbers: Connected TV ad spending, while still rising, is seeing its growth slow down. 

The amount of ad dollars placed toward CTV will be $6.41 billion in 2022, an increase of 34.6%, and $8.14 billion in 2023, an increase of 26.9%.

Be smart: You're going to see a lot of media companies tout single- to double-digit gains in ad commitments in regards to CPM (cost per million viewers), as well as increases in volume.

It's important to note that these are only commitments — no actual dollars are spent yet.

3. Charted: 💰 Upfront spending

The Upfronts have changed since ABC first decided to ask advertisers what they thought of their upcoming fall shows back in 1962.

As the Upfronts return in person, Tim asked a couple of buyers and sellers why the weeklong event is still useful:

Dave Campanelli, chief investment officer, Horizon Media

"I think the most useful thing for me, is what is the focus of their presentation? What are they highlighting the most, talking about the most as a hint to what is important to their business moving forward? ... It's a bit of a look into what their core pieces moving forward are."

Allie Kallish, EVP, strategic investment and accountability, Magna

"The access is phenomenal for our clients. It's good for everybody. It's exhausting, but it's good to be able to have your clients get face time with partners, especially for ones that are not in New York." 

Linda Yaccarino, NBCU's chairman of global advertising and partnerships

"The job of the upfront is to communicate the depth and breadth of all the content and the capabilities that you have, when marketers are looking for this incredibly actionable intel. ... The upfront has become much more sophisticated: In addition to talking about great content, it requires a discussion that is much more specific about marketers' KPIs."

4. Do we still need Upfronts?

Illustration of an event pass on a lanyard with a question mark on it.

10:30am: NBCUniversal @ Radio City Music Hall

11:30am: TelevisaUnivision @ River Pavilion at Javits Center

8pm: YouTube Brandcast @ Imperial Theater

10am: Warner Bros. Discovery @ Hulu Theater at Madison Square Garden

5. 🗓️ The week's schedule

UAE telecoms group e& bought a 9.8% stake in Vodafone for $4.4 billion. http://axios.link/x09V

Samba TV, which provides advertising and analytics software for connected TVs, pulled its planned $75 million IPO. http://axios.link/LUL5

5. Deal flow

The CW downsizes as it faces transitional year amid ownership change & business strategy shift (Deadline)

The CW, which is expected to be sold to Nexstar Media Group "in the next few weeks," is only bringing 11 series to its lineup next season, down from 19 a year ago.

TV networks' scramble to launch Nielsen rivals creates measurement mess (Variety)

"As media habits change, the entire system is likely to be overhauled, and the networks are relying more heavily on Nielsen rivals, trying to gain more control over the process — before someone else does," Brian Steinberg writes. 

How media buyers are bouncing back for this year's upfront (Adweek)

"After a challenging 2021-22 upfront, buyers have higher hopes for this year's marketplace. But the 2022-23 upfront will be unlike any other, with at least one megamerger on the horizon, the continued erosion of linear ratings, and massive measurement upheaval as multiple media companies craft alternatives to Nielsen metrics," Alexandra Bower writes. 

7. Channel surfing: Upfront edition

Illustration of a remote control in the shape of a surfboard leaning against a VW bus.

Happy Upfronts week, Media Deals readers!

Situational awareness: Welcome to another very special edition of this newsletter. This one: all things Upfronts, which return in person to New York City after two years of going virtual. 

@tim_bays: St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets on MLB.tv. Something tells me this series will be heated, given what happened last month in St. Louis.

@kerrymflynn: "Licorice Pizza" on Delta Inflight Movies. On the way home from Disney World, I'm catching up on the only Best Picture nominee I was still missing. 

Thank you for reading Axios Pro Media Deals! Please ask your friends, colleagues and fellow ad buyers to sign up.

May 16, 2022

1. 🔥 Nielsen under fire