Congress is entering a crucial stretch to decide how much to cut Medicaid in reconciliation, and the program's Affordable Care Act expansion is a big target, Peter and Victoria report.

Why it matters: The GOP is stuck between an ambitious savings target that is hard to meet without major Medicaid cuts and uneasiness from moderates and even President Trump about major changes that could risk coverage for millions.

Driving the news: Work requirements for "able-bodied" enrollees in the expansion population and a policy change allowing states to do more frequent eligibility checks by repealing a Biden-era rule appear almost certain to be included.

• Options still being considered but less certain to make it include placing a per capita cap on program spending for the expansion population, or lowering the 90% share of federal costs, known as the FMAP, for the expansion.
• These changes could result in millions of Medicaid beneficiaries losing their coverage.
• There could also be a crackdown on provider taxes, which some conservatives decry as "money laundering."

State of play: The House Energy and Commerce Committee is targeting May 7 for its markup of its portion of the reconciliation bill, giving lawmakers about a week to settle on a plan.

• Lawmakers are returning from a two-week recess during which only a few GOP members held town halls, while Democrats hammered home messaging about the consequences of Medicaid cuts.
• Other committees are set to mark up their portions of reconciliation this week, which may offer clues about whether GOP leadership will be able to stick to its aggressive timeline of passing the reconciliation bill before the Memorial Day recess.

Between the lines: At least some House moderates appear to have left wiggle room for cutting funding for the Medicaid expansion without touching traditional Medicaid.

• A letter from moderates this month called for protecting coverage for "children, seniors, individuals with disabilities, and pregnant women," groups covered by traditional Medicaid, not the expansion.
• Rep. Nicole Malliotakis said in a Bloomberg TV interview last week that per capita caps on traditional Medicaid are a "red line," appearing to leave room for a per capita cap on the expansion population.

By the numbers: Energy and Commerce has an $880 billion target to hit for spending cuts.

• Together, Medicaid work requirements and repealing the Medicaid eligibility rule would save $200 billion to $300 billion.
• Reducing the FMAP for the expansion population could save around $600 billion, per a Raymond James analysis.

Trump "does not want this to be a health care bill. This is an economic bill that secures the border and unleashes U.S. energy."

— House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith on NewsNation's "The Hill Sunday"

1. E&C markup: The House Energy and Commerce Committee marks up six bills tomorrow at 10am ET, including a reauthorization of SUPPORT Act programs to combat the opioid crisis.
2. Ed-Workforce reconciliation: The House Education and the Workforce Committee will be the first panel with health jurisdiction to mark up its piece of the GOP reconciliation package tomorrow at 10:15am ET.
3. Medical research: The Senate Appropriations Committee holds a hearing Wednesday at 10:30am ET on biomedical research and "keeping America's edge in innovation."
4. Ag-FDA hearing: The House Appropriations Committee holds a member day hearing tomorrow at 10:30am ET focused on the FDA, agriculture and rural development.

1. Data quest: HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s push to collect troves of personal medical data to find the cause of autism has skeptics fearing he'll cherry-pick information that supports certain theories, Maya Goldman reports.
2. Medicare for All: Senate HELP Ranking Member Bernie Sanders and Reps. Pramila Jayapal and Debbie Dingell plan to reintroduce the legislation at an event with health care providers.
3. Onshoring pharma: Reps. Buddy Carter, Claudia Tenney and Gus Bilirakis formed the American-Made Medicines Caucus to boost domestic production of drugs and reduce reliance on Chinese products and ingredients.