House Republicans from competitive districts are raising concerns about the prospect of large Medicaid cuts — and are pointing to recent comments from President Trump to reinforce their case, Peter reports.

Why it matters: House GOP leaders' hopes of passing a reconciliation package could be sunk with two defections, assuming Democrats are unified in opposition.

• But it will be hard to hit targets like those laid out in the Republican budget resolution without major changes to the safety net program.

Driving the news: With the House budget calling for as much as $2 trillion in cuts to mandatory spending, moderates are sounding the alarm that they don't want their constituents' Medicaid benefits harmed.

• "I think President Trump made clear it's all right to do work requirements, it's all right to make sure we have valid people, but any significant cuts to Medicaid as it would affect a patient, he would oppose," Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon, who represents one of the most competitive House districts, told reporters after the budget was released last week.
• "I think he's got the right gut instinct on this," Bacon added.
• "President Trump has said he really doesn't want to touch Medicaid, so I'm not sure how they're gonna come up with the cuts," said New York Rep. Andrew Garbarino.

One vulnerable freshman, Pennsylvania Rep. Rob Bresnahan, fired a public warning shot on X. "If a bill is put in front of me that guts the benefits my neighbors rely on, I will not vote for it," he wrote.

What they're saying: Trump made waves at the end of January by telling reporters that he wanted only to cut "abuse or waste" in Medicaid, not anything that would "affect" beneficiaries.

• Those comments leave considerable wiggle room, though, and it's not clear exactly what changes would meet Trump's standard.
• Speaker Mike Johnson similarly sought to reassure his caucus and the public last week, saying that only "non-benefit-related reforms to the program" are on the table.
• But with a budget that calls for at least $880 billion in cuts from the Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicaid, the math could force major changes to the program that would require states to squeeze benefits or have people lose coverage.

Between the lines: The budget sets only the overall goal for cuts, so the specifics of what changes would be made to Medicaid to reach that number are not yet clear.

• Another New York Republican, Rep. Nick LaLota, said he is waiting to see the details.
• "It's too early right now in this budget resolution. It doesn't get specific on things like [Medicaid]," he told reporters. "We're gonna see in the budget reconciliation [bill] what the specific proposals are."

Democratic-aligned groups are launching ads and pushing messaging memos aimed at singling out the moderate House Republicans on the GOP's plans to overhaul Medicaid, Victoria reports.

Why it matters: The goal is to portray vulnerable Republicans as eager to cut low-income Americans' health care ahead of the next election cycle.

State of play: The House Majority PAC released a memo today that says Republicans have gone "full Matt Bevin" and are planning to make deep cuts to Medicaid to fund tax cuts for billionaires.

• Bevin is the former Kentucky GOP governor who tried to overhaul Medicaid in the state, including via work requirements, but then lost reelection to current Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear.
• "The cuts currently pushed by House Republicans will be a defining issue in 2026," the memo reads.
• It outlines how many children and adults in certain swing House districts have Medicaid coverage, with 36% to 78% of children in the districts on Medicaid.

Protect Our Care also started putting up billboards beginning today in swing districts, and is launching TV and online ads protesting Medicaid cuts.

• The group is spending almost $1 million on what it calls the "Hands Off Medicaid" campaign.
• "As members go home, they will be confronting a critical message: hands off Medicaid," Protect Our Care chair Leslie Dach said in a statement.

The bottom line: Democrats are still trying to find their political footing, and it remains to be seen how their messages land with the public.

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