Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi / Axios
Allowing ACA premium tax credits to expire at the end of this year would mean 4.2 million more people will be uninsured by 2034, according to a new CBO preliminary estimate requested by House Energy and Commerce Democrats.
Why it matters: The estimate, combined with potential Medicaid coverage losses, adds to concerns about how the uninsured rate could swell if Republicans make good on their targeted changes in reconciliation.
Zoom in: Codifying an ACA marketplace rule that was recently released by the Trump administration would result in 1.8 million more people without health insurance by 2034, the CBO preliminary estimate also found.
- That rule would make it more difficult for people to enroll in ACA coverage outside of the open enrollment period.
- In total, these two ACA provisions would potentially result in 5 million more people not having health insurance coverage in the next nine years.
- CBO also said it is continuing to analyze the Medicaid provisions and how they interact with the ACA measures to fully understand the ramifications of how they will affect and potentially increase the number of uninsured.
State of play: House Republicans have appeared staunchly against extending the ACA premium tax credits, based on details in E&C's health measures in the reconciliation bill.
- But at least two Senate Republicans, Thom Tillis and Lisa Murkowski, have called for extending the subsidies.
