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BFD Expert Voices - Private Credit

BFD Expert Voices

TCV's John Doran says it takes a lot more to go public today than it did just a few years ago. However, a renewed focus on building sustainable, profitable businesses could ultimately be a boon for the industry.

Why it matters: After several slow years for fintech listings, several late-stage companies are expected to go public soon.

Context: Doran is a general partner at TCV and sits on the board of Revolut, which was valued at $45 billion in a secondary sale this year in preparation for its IPO.

Doran's other investments include Allica Bank, Mambu, Qonto, Trade Republic, Zepz and Klarna, which is also expected to go public next year.

(This interview has been edited for brevity.)

Several late-stage fintech companies are expected to IPO soon. What do you think of today's IPO market, and what will it take to get them to list?

"I think the consensus view today versus pre-2021 is that you have to be at scale — more scale than people previously thought — to have a successful IPO. If people thought it was $100 million of recurring revenue in the past, it's probably closer to five times that today and most likely profitable or close to it.

It wasn't the same in the 2018-2021 era. The prioritization was not on systems, processes, and sustainable growth. Many of those companies now have to invest in these areas, and I think that's actually a good thing, irrespective of going public."

There have been a lot of secondary sales recently from Revolut, Stripe and some others. As an investor, what do you think of these tender offers?

"There are definitely benefits to doing a secondary. These employees have been working hard for a long time, and this creates the ability to get liquidity. I see real value there.

However, the public market is the ultimate decider and arbiter of how companies are doing. Investors have many avenues to deploy their capital, so I think that is the yardstick by which all companies will ultimately be measured.

I don't think staying private forever is an option for many companies. There are exceptions. But ultimately, I think IPO is the target for most."

As a growth-stage investor, the last two years have been very slow. How do you see the opportunities out there for you to put money to work?

"If I think about fintech more broadly, you are absolutely right — there are definitely fewer dollars. But from our perspective, nothing has changed in terms of the companies that we're trying to partner with.

I'd say the hype cycle is always there in various verticals. I couldn't open Axios Pro Rata in 2020 and not see a fintech investment. It was super-hyped, but at the same time, there were companies during that period building real, sustainable businesses.

What's happening today is similar to what was happening then but playing out on a much larger scale. We're seeing the difference between those who are building sustainable winners and all the others."

Are there particular categories you find interesting right now in fintech?

"Infrastructure remains particularly interesting. There have been significant dollars invested in this space, but I think the ability to monetize has been the challenge. The story is not finished there.

Another area where we continue to see compelling opportunities is on the B2B side within fintech. Many folks spend time on payments, and that has been a major focus area for us over the years. However, the business-to-business side of payments is really interesting and, in some ways, just developing."

Expert voices: TCV

He also shares where he sees growth opportunities today.

Photo illustration of John Doran with a pattern of TCV logos.

Photo illustration: Axios Visuals. Photo: Courtesy of TCV

Fintech

TCV&#x27;s John Doran says it takes a lot more to go public today than it did just a few years ago. However, a renewed focus on building sustainable, profitable businesses could ultimately be a boon for the industry.Why it matters: After several slow years for fintech listings, several late-stage companies are expected to go public soon.

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Expert voices: TCV

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