Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
The Trump administration predicted Monday that the risk of blackouts could become 100 times greater if planned fossil-fuel power plant closures remain on schedule.
Why it matters: The Energy Department report lays the statistical groundwork to continue its efforts to keep coal and natural gas plants open beyond their scheduled shutdown dates.
- The report is also grist for the administration and Republicans in Congress to attack wind and solar as unreliable and to fast-track new fossil fuel plants that they contend can provide steady flow of power.
What's inside: The DOE study found the closures of "baseload" power plants — which can meet round-the-clock demand — would be replaced by wind and solar that produce power intermittently.
- The 104 gigawatts of retirements are projected to be replaced by only 22 gigawatts of baseload generation sources, the report found.
- One scenario shows the expected duration of power outages increases by a factor of 100 in 2030. Even assuming no retirements, the model found increased risk of outages by a factor of 34.
What they're saying: The DOE, in a news release, blamed "the radical green agenda of past administrations."
- "The United States cannot afford to continue down the unstable and dangerous path of energy subtraction previous leaders pursued, forcing the closure of baseload power sources like coal and natural gas," Energy Secretary Chris Wright said.
Context: The report comes as agencies work to carry out executive orders intended to prop up the declining coal industry and confront rising electricity demand from data centers.
- The DOE has already ordered a coal plant in Michigan and gas plant in Pennsylvania to keep running through the summer.
- Energy officials have been calling around to inquire about plant closure plans, Axios scooped in May.
The other side: Renewable energy supporters and consumer protection advocates have argued consumers will pay higher prices for uneconomic plants.
- The DOE study "appears to exaggerate the risk of blackouts and undervalue the contributions of entire resource classes, like wind, solar, and battery storage," said Caitlin Marquis, managing director at the industry group Advanced Energy United.
- Marquis noted Texas has achieved a more reliable grid and lower prices by leaning on those technologies.
What we're watching: How energy regulators and lawmakers use this report.
- During Trump's first term, the DOE pressed FERC to issue a rulemaking propping up coal and nuclear plants.
- While the commission unanimously rejected that directive, it may face more White House pressure to act this time.
