Cramer in May. Photo: Bill Clark / CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images
The Senate's softer treatment of IRA energy credits than the House's removes some obstacles to passage — but deficit hawks could still derail reconciliation.
Why it matters: The upper chamber is trying to thread the tiniest of needles. Expanding access allows IRA backers to declare some victory without losing hardliners seeking a full repeal.
- But House Freedom Caucus member Chip Roy has already rejected the Senate's IRA language. And Sen. Ron Johnson said he would vote against the bill as written and that "a lot" of work is needed.
The big picture: Sen. Kevin Cramer downplayed outstanding issues, saying they could be resolved by "a phone call between a couple of principals."
- Cramer praised the longer phaseouts for nuclear and geothermal and the retention of the 45Q carbon capture tax credit.
- Senators were "just a little more realistic about the nascent technologies," Cramer told me heading into a briefing on the text Monday night.
- "If we're going to give them a shot, we gotta maybe … extend [the credits] a little longer," he said. "Those are the technologies that place a priority on reliability on the grid."
Senate Republicans who huddled to discuss the Finance Committee's text described a bill that was still in flux on key issues.
- Sen. John Hoeven told reporters that the group is still working on details of the wind and solar phaseouts.
- Another subject of GOP disagreement remains public-land sales.
What they're saying: Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, a right-of-center group influential with IRA-friendly Republicans, said the bill has serious flaws.
- The group cited the complexity of the anti-China foreign entity of concern language, excluding wind and solar from the tax credits, and elimination of the hydrogen tax credit at the end of 2025.
- "If enacted, Americans will pay more for energy, businesses will cancel key energy projects, and our nation will fall behind in the global energy race," CRES President Heather Reams said in a statement.
Between the lines: Anti-China provisions could open an easier path for some renewables.
- The Senate text allows solar components to meet a phased-in screen, going from 50% for components sold in 2026 to 85% for components sold after 2029.
- Energy storage would get a similar stepped-up approach, increasing from 40% in 2026 to 60% after 2029.
- Solar companies see progress but are pressing for changes: "We are in a fight for our lives," Solar Energy Industries Association CEO Abigail Ross Hopper told advocates outside the Capitol on Tuesday.
The bottom line: Negotiations between the House and Senate will put tax credit phaseout timelines and anti-China language "most at risk for further debate," investment analyst TD Cowen said Tuesday.
