Illustration: Brendan Lynch / Axios
Republicans are entering crunch time on reconciliation — with unresolved questions about IRA spending, tax credits and other issues that they want to answer by Memorial Day.
Why it matters: The first slate of markups in the House this week will give us the first real look at the GOP's energy policy plans.
- GOP leaders are hoping to get a final bill across the finish line by July 4.
Driving the news: The biggest single tranche of energy money on the table is the IRA's lucrative tax credits, which would likely be worth more than $800 billion in savings if fully repealed.
- But there's pressure from within the conference to keep at least some of those in place — particularly incentives for carbon capture, nuclear and advanced manufacturing that benefit GOP districts.
- "No final decisions have been made," Rep. Buddy Carter, one of the 21 Republicans who signed a letter seeking to protect the credits, told Axios on Tuesday.
Between the lines: Republicans are also facing pressure from GOP-friendly electric co-ops, which took advantage of clean energy production and investment tax credits for the first time thanks to the IRA's elective pay provisions.
- "We're going to be directly advocating for elective pay," National Rural Electric Cooperative Association CEO Jim Matheson told reporters.
- Lawmakers are mulling changes to the ITC and PTC — short of full repeal — that could limit transferability or phase them out over a shorter window.
Zoom in: Another question is just how much of the IRA's energy spending the Energy and Commerce Committee will be able to pull back, as it eyes a May 7 markup of its portion of the bill.
- Most of E&C's $880 billion cut allocation is likely going to be Medicaid-related.
- Republicans would love to roll back most or all of the clean energy money the IRA sent to EPA and DOE. But much of it was obligated at the end of the Biden administration and is tied up in court fights.
- "We're going to do investigations of that, but they didn't leave a lot of money to recover," Chair Brett Guthrie told reporters.
What we're watching: House Armed Services' portion of reconciliation, being marked up Tuesday, has $3 billion in minerals spending.
- That includes $2.5 billion to "improve the United States production of critical minerals through the National Defense Stockpile" and an additional $500 million for loans and financing for minerals projects.
- Republicans have also sought to tackle environmental permitting, though it's still unclear whether that will fly with the Senate parliamentarian.
- The Judiciary Committee's portion of the bill includes a version of the REINS Act that would require congressional approval of major federal rules.
House Republicans could put additional permitting and regulatory language on the table when Natural Resources marks up its reconciliation piece next week.
- Chair Bruce Westerman said his portion won't include "broad permitting reform."
- But, he told Axios today, "there's still a lot of stuff on the table."
