Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios
Hill Republicans are on a three-week sprint to get on the same page on reconciliation before lawmakers leave town again.
Why it matters: Objective No. 1 for Republicans is passing a unified budget resolution through both chambers, which they must do before they can formally start moving a reconciliation bill.
Here's what we're watching as lawmakers return…
Finding resolution: House GOP leaders and committee chairs issued a joint statement today calling on the Senate to pass the House budget resolution to set up "one big, beautiful bill."
- Meanwhile, they'll be trying to hash out a compromise that could pass both chambers.
- They essentially have to move something this work period to have any shot of getting a reconciliation bill to President Trump's desk this spring.
- Sen. John Hoeven predicted in a Fox News interview Sunday that the Senate could get a resolution to the floor as soon as next week: "We're going to try to iron out the things we need to address in the House-passed bill."
Math problems: Without a unified budget plan, lawmakers and committee staff who have been working on the underlying policy for months still have little clarity on how their budget math needs to add up.
- That's ultimately what could determine the fate of the IRA energy tax credits, since they're worth roughly $800 billion in revenue, according to the Budget Committee and outside experts.
Where credit's due: Advocates and clean energy lobbyists we've talked to say Republicans behind the scenes still aren't exactly sure how they'll handle the incentives amid divisions in the conference about their fate.
- "We're hearing a lot of rumors" about tax credit bonuses being altered and so-called foreign entity of concern language that could reduce the overall score of the IRA provisions, said Third Way's Alan Ahn.
- "We don't have a clear sense at this point on … what is actually going to go forward."
- Although a full IRA repeal still seems unlikely, "we caution against broadly optimistic views that Republican lawmakers will hold the line to save green tax credits in the face of pressure from Republican leadership and ultimately, Trump himself," RBC Insight wrote in a research note.
Major miners: Trump's minerals executive order could have some ripple effects for the Hill and for the reconciliation push.
- It proposes to use the Defense Production Act to bolster projects, something Republicans on the Hill have already discussed.
- We're also watching to see how the EO — and pushback from the conservation community — crosses with the broader bipartisanship around mining and minerals policy right now.
