Gas demand creates turbine backlog and GOP dilemma
A worker cleans a gas turbine at a General Electric plant in Greenville, S.C. Photographer: Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg via Getty Images
A scramble for natural gas power to meet soaring electricity demand has created a yearslong backlog for new gas turbines.
Why it matters: Supply chain issues with turbines complicate President Trump's and congressional Republicans' goals to quickly flip on more gas and exclude renewables, which make up the vast majority of proposed power projects.
- The order timelines add to permitting delays and litigation around pipelines as headaches for Congress and the administration.
Between the lines: Lawmakers and energy officials are still coming to terms with the supply chain problem, which has long plagued wind and solar projects.
- Rep. Julie Fedorchak said she's hearing from gas turbine manufacturers as part of her AI and Energy Working Group.
- "I know there are supply chain issues affecting all of the generation sources that are currently being pursued, both the gas as well as wind and solar," Fedorchak told Axios last week.
- "Where are the constraints occurring?" she said. "Are there policy solutions for those? Is it incentives? Is it permitting? What exactly are the challenges that are preventing faster turnaround times, and how can we mitigate them?"
The big picture: Utilities and energy developers view gas — which powers more than 40% of U.S. electricity generation — as a reliable source to fill in gaps left by intermittent wind and solar.
- But Democrats argue that turbine backlogs undermine natural gas-fueled ambitions.
- "Claims that this challenge can only be met with an endless fleet of natural gas power plants are completely misguided," House Energy and Commerce Ranking Member Frank Pallone said at a hearing this month.
- "For one, the gas turbine supply chain simply won't allow it."
Zoom in: While gas plants continue to be built and expanded, data center demand and backing from the Trump administration have created a frenzy for new turbines.
- "They pretty much removed any scintilla of policy doubt that might have been lingering out there about gas," said Roger Martella, chief corporate officer at GE Vernova.
- GE Vernova announced in January that it's investing $600 million in its factories, half of which will go toward producing gas turbines. It plans to deliver 80 heavy gas turbines a year, worth 20 gigawatts of power — a 40% increase from the company's production capacity today.
- GE is still discussing order deliveries in 2028 and will do so "as long as we can," Martella said.
Siemens Energy is seeing an "astonishing resurgence in gas turbine demand," Luke Baker, head of generation sales, North America, said in a statement. "There are challenges that come with this type of exponential growth, but we are meeting them."
- Siemens has a shrinking number of factory slots available for gas turbines in 2027, 2028 and 2029, a spokesperson said.
- The manufacturer is trying to add slots in these years, but they're selling faster than it can increase manufacturing capacity, the spokesperson said.
Our thought bubble: The Biden administration invoked the Defense Production Act to support transformers and electric grid components, discussing ways to solve labor shortages and provide certainty to the industry.
- Hill Republicans have discussed using the DPA to fund minerals and nuclear projects, so we're watching to see whether gas turbines become part of that conversation.
- Trump could also lean on his national energy emergency to ramp up manufacturing of gas turbines.
- "We agree it is an energy emergency, and we think we should be discussing all the options on the table," Martella said.
