Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios
The incoming Trump administration is all but certain to scrap the Energy Department's finding that continued unchecked LNG export approvals could raise global emissions and U.S. prices.
Why it matters: Thorny questions remain that could influence the study's staying power on LNG policy for years to come in Congress and the courts.
Here are three things we're watching...
1. Just how quickly can Trump act to boost exports?
Though he has pledged to approve LNG export licenses on day one, he'd likely have to confront the study or face risk of losing lawsuits.
- The study could delay Trump's plans "anywhere from several months to several calendar quarters to revise or revisit study results," ClearView Energy Partners said in a recent note.
- The study instantly became a formal part of DOE permit proceedings that Trump would have to address, Public Citizen attorney Tyson Slocum told Axios' Ben Geman.
2. Will Congress act next year?
Lawmakers required DOE to act on LNG applications as part of a bipartisan permitting deal that fell apart this week.
- A Republican sweep of Congress — and reconciliation talks already started — raises the likelihood of reviving that mandate, particularly if the action can be tied to a budget impact.
- Democratic lawmakers like Sens. Ed Markey and Sheldon Whitehouse and Rep. Sean Casten said the DOE confirmed their views that LNG does much more harm than good.
- But nine House Democrats joined all Republicans in voting to strip DOE of its LNG approval authority.
3. Will a competing study muddy the waters?
The industry and its allies largely dismissed the DOE's LNG study by pointing to another one that also dropped Tuesday from S&P Global that was led by energy scholar Dan Yergin.
- Yergin and his team projected more than $250 billion in economic growth and 100,000 U.S. jobs would be a risk if the government clamped down on further LNG exports.
