Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The debate over whether electric vehicle incentives are creating good-paying jobs is reaching a boiling point in some of the country's tightest races in a key battleground state.
Why it matters: Both parties are putting out starkly different messages in Michigan, where more than 1 million people have ties to the auto sector.
- Races for president, an open Senate seat and two open House seats are rated as tossups.
What they're saying: Democratic candidates, backed by the United Auto Workers, argue the IRA's EV tax credits and a state incentive fund have saved and created Michigan jobs as the global auto sector inevitably goes electric.
- Republicans, led by Donald Trump, have pushed the narrative that Democrats are subsidizing plants that will lead to fewer American jobs than are needed to make gas-fueled vehicles.
- And they say the incentives largely benefit China, which currently dominates the EV supply chain.
Zoom in: Republican candidates have recently targeted a $500 million federal grant to convert the GM Lansing Grand River plant to make EVs.
- GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers said last week he wouldn't support the grant and equated the Biden administration's stringent tailpipe emissions to mandating the purchase of EVs that are unpopular with consumers.
- Voters "don't want to be forced to build cars that Americans don't want to buy, and in Washington I'll stand up for our autoworkers and put an end to this nonsense, and invest in Michigan, not China," said Rogers, who faces Rep. Elissa Slotkin. (Slotkin's campaign didn't respond to requests for comment.)
The other side: Democrats and the UAW hit back, with Kamala Harris visiting Flint this month to deliver a message: "I will never tell you what kind of car you have to drive."
- Kristen McDonald Rivet, a Democratic state senator running for the 8th Congressional District seat vacated by Rep. Dan Kildee, said she doesn't support EV mandates.
- "What I do support is Michigan leading the world in making cars, which is why I have helped bring manufacturing jobs, job training and apprenticeships to our region," she told Axios.
- EVs also have been an issue in the 7th District race, which pits two former state senators, Republican Tom Barrett and Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr., against each other.
Shawn Fain, the UAW's president, said on a call with reporters last week that Trump would "gut" EV incentives and "terminate the IRA," which would devastate efforts to retool plants and to organize workers.
- "He's literally ceded an entire sector, an entire industry, to the Chinese," Fain said.
- Fain said the union's internal polling has consistently shown about 65% vote Democrat, while about 32% vote Republican.
Context: Softening EV demand has led automakers like GM, Ford and Stellantis to slow planned investments in the EV transition.
- The market challenges have created an opening for Republicans to chip away at rank-and-file workers' support for the investments.
The bottom line: "It appears that Trump has put the Democrats in Michigan and across the nation on the defensive concerning governmental support for EVs in its multi-faceted forms," said Marick Masters, a business professor at Wayne State University in Detroit.
- He added that "the extent to which the UAW can get out a pro-Harris vote may tip the scales" in the Michigan races.
