Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Some of the closest Senate races this election season could yield — by razor-thin margins — dramatically different outcomes on energy policy issues.
Why it matters: No matter who's president, the makeup of Congress will dictate what they can accomplish.
Here are the contests we're watching:
1. Montana: Sen. Jon Tester vs. Tim Sheehy
Tester made a name for himself as a moderate over three terms, but he's widely seen as a crucial ally by the environmental community, with an 89% lifetime LCV score.
- He has more recently sided with Republicans against the Biden administration in various Congressional Review Act votes to roll back regulations, including on auto emissions and ESG.
- His race against Sheehy, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, has been wrapped up in federal public lands issues after Sheehy said those lands should be "turned over to state agencies, or even counties."
- Tester has also fought mining layoffs announced by Sibanye-Stillwater, introducing a bill that would ban Russian palladium imports and pressing the Biden administration to expand the 45X tax credit.
2. Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno
Brown is among Senate Democrats' most prominent anti-China crusaders, particularly since his campaign season has ramped up this year.
- He voted to overturn the solar tariff waiver, introduced legislation that would add "foreign entity of concern" language to the IRA's 45X tax credit and has led the push for trade protections for U.S. solar companies (like Ohio-based First Solar).
- Moreno is another Trump-backed Republican. He's largely taken a conventional GOP pro-fossil fuel view but is notably outspoken on criticizing Biden administration vehicle regs and EV tax credits.
- He's tried to tie Brown to a "Green New Deal agenda" that would "force Americans into electric cars that they don't want."
3. Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey vs. David McCormick
Like Brown, Casey has been a Democratic trade crusader, particularly in defense of the solar industry and on the IRA's industrial policy.
- And it's Pennsylvania — you already know fracking is an issue.
- Casey supports fracking and the natural gas industry but also largely votes with environmentalists and climate hawks, with a 94% LCV score.
- McCormick has moved to tie Casey to the Biden energy agenda and Kamala Harris' 2019 comments on fracking from which she has since retreated. His campaign is even running ads explicitly about fracking that claim Harris and Casey would essentially eviscerate the industry's jobs.
4. Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen vs. Sam Brown
Rosen has been a conservation champion (with a 96% LCV score) while promoting her state's buildout of solar energy and mining of minerals needed for the energy transition.
- She has fought tariffs on solar imports from four southeast Asian countries.
- Brown, an Army veteran and businessman, has criticized the bipartisan infrastructure law and IRA. "We have solar fields being built across the state right now," Brown said last year. "Not for the benefit of Nevadans, but for the energy policies of [California Gov.] Gavin Newsom."
- Brown said in 2022 he would be willing to allow nuclear waste to be stored in Yucca Mountain — a long-dormant project that most Nevadans strongly oppose — but walked back those comments amid blowback from both parties.
5. Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake
Gallego, a five-term House Democrat, has focused on extreme heat protections and advocating for expanded access to utility bill assistance.
- He criticized Biden's extreme heat plan as "all talk, no action" and demanded that a local power company fix grid failures amid a heat wave.
- Lake, a former TV anchor who ran for governor in 2022, has generally opposed renewable energy subsidies while advocating for oil and gas and nuclear power.
- "I will vote to open our oil reserves to exploration, cut prices at the pump & on your utility bill, & expand exports once again," Lake posted on Instagram last week.
