Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The Hill's carbon tariff supporters think they can keep the idea alive if former President Trump wins.
Why it matters: Despite the current conservative backlash against the idea, Trump's a tariff guy. And people in populist GOP circles, namely former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, are talking about carbon-based trade regimes.
Driving the news: There's already chatter about adding the PROVE IT Act — a study of emissions intensity that got its House introduction this week — to some kind of year-end legislation during the lame duck.
- That would help the next administration make the case that countries with high-polluting industry should pay to send their products to the U.S. —something of a Trumpian idea.
- "I think this is something that has legs, no matter what the outcome is in November," Sen. Chris Coons said at a summit yesterday hosted by the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Meanwhile, Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse and Bill Cassidy are leading the effort to draw up a bipartisan proposal to actually enact a carbon tariff regime.
- Think of that as a 2025 project at the absolute earliest.
- A Biden official also offered support for PROVE IT, a sign that this will be a very live issue should he win re-election.
- "The era of climate-agnostic trade policies is over," White House climate official Ben Beachy said at the summit.
Yes, but: PROVE IT has been referred to three House committees — Ways and Means, E&C and Foreign Affairs. That could spell jurisdictional doom, since the sponsors would likely need at least tacit consent from committee leaders.
- When Axios asked her about the bill, E&C Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers said, "We're going to look at that and see where the committee is."
- Rep. John Curtis said he's met with Rodgers' staff "a number of times" about the bill.
Our thought bubble: A GOP sweep — combined with a failure to get the PROVE IT Act into a must-pass bill this year — might halt this whole movement.
- That's because would-be Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Shelley Moore Capito opposes the bill. She'd be unlikely to move it through the panel if she's in charge next year.
The bottom line: Much like the Republican-friendly carbon tax movement of the 2010s, there's a whole maze of hurdles to navigate before the U.S. has any shot at a real carbon tariff regime.
