Photos: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images; Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
The end of Kevin McCarthy's speakership could shift the energy and climate priority list on the Hill.
Why it matters: The conservative names floated for his replacement are to McCarthy's right on these issues — and will face a chamber rife with partisan distrust after Democrats played a role in his ouster.
- Unless this dynamic changes substantially, there will be slimmer odds of another grand bargain on permitting or other energy issues this Congress.
- Even some of the bipartisan legislation McCarthy was trying to advance, like the Save Our Sequoias Act and the "trillion trees" proposal, have a hazy outlook.
- "It's all up in the air right now," Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman said when Axios asked about those efforts Tuesday. "There's no certainty about anything. This is totally disruptive."
Driving the news: Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan have jumped into the race, so we'll focus on them for now.
Between the lines: Scalise is a classic Louisiana oil backer with a history of climate change denial who helps lead the charge against restrictions on offshore drilling.
- He's also the longtime sponsor of an anti-carbon tax resolution that Republicans passed through the House in 2018.
- "Trump had gotten us out of the Paris Accord, and we reduced carbon emissions during that period because we have innovation. We have the best standards in the world," he said in a recent appearance on Fox Business.
Of note: Jordan is more of a wild card on these issues, having not served on any relevant committees.
- But his record of climate denial is a sign he's incredibly conservative on energy policy more broadly. At a 2021 hearing, he argued that U.S. carbon emissions have gone down because of oil and gas industry innovations.
- As chair of Judiciary, he's launched an investigation into major asset managers to investigate whether their ESG practices violate antitrust laws.
The intrigue: A speaker tight with the oil and gas industry, like Scalise, could in theory place an even greater emphasis on changing federal environmental laws key to permitting.
- Scalise's state is invested in the future of carbon capture and sequestration, so it may be easier to work with him on tax credits like 45Q.
- In addition, Louisiana's offshore wind industry is growing.
The big picture: The big-ticket policies Republicans pursue probably won't change all that much.
- Scalise, for example, was already a leading figure in developing and messaging HR 1, the permitting and IRA repeal bill Republicans passed last spring.
