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The Model 3 is the "affordable" Tesla — the one that followed the path blazed by the six-figure Model S and Model X.

Why it matters: The Model 3 is the third most popular car in America, behind only the Toyota Camry and Corolla. 

Put another way: More people are buying a Model 3 than a Honda Civic or Accord. 

Catch up fast: We take these strategies that Tesla pioneered for granted. 

Cars reframed as sleek computers-on-wheels, buttressed by over-the-air updates and new features;

Heavy investment in a network of fast, reliable and easy-to-find charging stations;

Seamless sales through the company's website and showrooms;

An early focus not on high-volume, low-cost cars, but on lust-worthy luxury vehicles. 

The bottom line: These innovations were hugely effective. 

The Tesla alchemy transformed EVs from dry, sugar-free granola into decadent, brag-worthy brunch.

Yes, but: Tesla's been in production hell for years, and its customers are the ones who keep paying the price. 

Both Consumer Reports and J.D. Power place Tesla near the bottom of their reliability ratings. 

Tesla ranked among Chrysler and Jeep, the latter said to stand for "Just Expect Every Problem."

What's happening: Tesla vastly accelerated its output year over year to meet projections and investor goals. It doubled deliveries in 2021 alone.

That's led to major problems. Measuring the enormous gaps between car panels has become a Tesla meme. 

Then there are the drivers who discover their brand-new cars are being held together with fake wood. 

What we're watching: The race is on to see if Tesla figures out its production problems before Tesla buyers finally get fed up.

Lousy reliability hasn't exactly stopped drivers from buying Jeep, Dodge and Chrysler, but there's a reason only a handful of their vehicles are best-sellers.

1 big thing: Utter electric dominance

The Tesla logo glows blue in the window of a showroom in Shanghai at night.

The Tesla logo glows in a showroom window in Shanghai. Photo: CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images

I rented a 2022 Model 3 through Turo, the car-sharing app (thanks, Justin!) and drove from Boston to the Axios BFD Summit in New York City. So plenty of highway and city driving.

Why it matters: This is a worthy, if pricey, car. So long as you don't get a lemon. 

Price as tested: $62,990 for the Performance edition.

Range: 267 miles for the base model, up to 358 miles for the Long Range trim. Performance gets 315 miles.

Charge time: A Tesla Supercharger gives you 200 miles in 15 minutes — very fast. A full top-up will be closer to 30 minutes, about standard.

Tesla's Supercharger network is the CLEAR of EV charging. It should all be this easy.

Plush seats, roomy interior, plenty of storage.

An infotainment screen that actually looks as if it's from this decade, buttressed by a pair of elegant knobs on the steering wheel.

Attractive as that screen is, it brings a learning curve. (I sat for 15 minutes figuring it out before hitting the road.)

My ride was fine, but whether the car you get is a dud seems a coin-toss.

Wildcard: Where we're going, Marty, we don't need buttons.

If using a touch screen for everything but driving — including even opening the glove box — feels sleek and futuristic, the Model 3 is the car for you.

If you prefer buttons for volume, climate control and much else, the Model 3 may make you nuts. 

The bottom line: There's a reason the Model 3 has sold 5x more cars than the next-closest EV. It's sleek, it drives well, and charging is a breeze.

Whether that's worth coughing up another $10,000-plus, instead of going with a rival from Hyundai or Kia, depends entirely on priorities.

Would the Model 3 be your road-trip car? Don't have charging at home? The Supercharger network could alone justify the extra cash.  

Low risk-tolerance? Prefer a more traditional infotainment setup? An EV from a legacy automaker may be a safer bet. 

2. The BFD: This is what dominance drives like

A black Tesla Model 3 parked on the street in front of a row home in Boston.

A black Tesla Model 3 parked in front of a row home in Boston. Photo: Alan Neuhauser

Tesla spent years as the only manufacturer of sought-after, long-range electric vehicles. No longer. Rival vehicles from legacy automakers are gaining traction and even starting to outsell Tesla in some markets overseas.

Why it matters: There are three paths for Tesla. Which it ends up following will depend on its production, its supply chains and its innovation.

State of play: Tesla holds 68% of the EV market. It's pumping out about 1 million cars a year.

Musk wants to churn out 20 million cars a year as soon as 2030. That's a whole lot of fake wood.

It's meanwhile veering further into Mercedes', BMW's and VW's turf with an expanded factory in Germany.

And last year, it finally turned a profit from its cars and energy products.

Range? The Ford Mustang Mach-E, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6 each match Tesla.

Tech? All the automakers are leaning into over-the-air updates and tech wizardry, some more successfully than others.

Advanced driver assistance? They've got that, too.

Price? There's a $17,000 difference between the Model 3 and comparable models of the Ioniq 5 and EV 6. 

Meanwhile, legacy automakers are posting meaningful sales. Tesla has a huge lead on the Mustang Mach-E, but 28,089 Mach-Es sold is no joke.

That's especially so when the only things holding back any of these automakers are supply chain disruptions and a lack of raw materials.

Overseas, EVs from BYD, BMW and Mercedes-Benz outsold Tesla in Singapore. 

👀 What we're watching: The MIT Sloan Management Review polled its panel of business experts in September.

Two-thirds expect Tesla's dominance to come to an end. "In the face of all of this innovation and variety, Tesla feels a bit like the modern Model T," Olav Sorenson of UCLA told the publication.

Then again, the remaining third aren't so sure: “Tesla is in almost every way the Apple of the motor vehicle industry," Richard Holden of the University of New South Wales put it.

"And while Apple’s initial dominance in the smartphone (and then tablet) market receded to some degree — say, in terms of market share — its dominance continued," Holden said.

3. Tesla's future is either the iPhone or the Model T

The sparse interior of the Tesla Model 3.

The sparse interior of the Tesla Model 3. Photo: Sjoerd van der Wal/Getty Images

Data: Automotive News Research & Data Center; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Model 3 is the No. 2 selling electric vehicle in the U.S., behind only the Model Y crossover SUV. 

Meanwhile, all four Tesla models rank among the best-selling EVs in the U.S.

4. How the sales stack up

Tesla CEO and hype man Elon Musk is, ahem, in the news. But that's not why we bumped Tesla to the top of the schedule. 

The automaker that brought EVs to the masses — the models by which all others are measured — is finally facing competition. It's time to see whether it still measures up. 

Thanks for reading! Next up: Ford F-150 Lightning or the Ford Mustang Mach-E — each a legendary brand, each a fascinating take on our electric future. 

November 12, 2022

1 big thing: Utter electric dominance