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BFD Expert Voices - Climate Deals

BFD Expert Voices

The dueling IPOs of nuclear firm X-energy and geothermal company Fervo Energy highlight the curious way the market is pricing next-gen energy. 

Why it matters: The companies' IPOs are among the hottest in clean energy this year. 

By the numbers: X-energy's valuation landed at $9.1 billion when it priced its shares last month. Its market cap has since fluctuated between $8.5 billion and $12.5 billion.

Fervo Energy targeted a valuation that could reach $6.5 billion when it prices shares, likely next week. That's about 50% lower than X-energy's pre-trading valuation. 

The intrigue: X-energy's premium stands out because Fervo's geothermal projects will deliver power many years before X-energy's reactors. 

Fervo's Cape Station project is targeting late 2026, while X-energy's projects could be operational in the early 2030s. 

Fervo's pilot project has been delivering electrons to the grid since 2023.

Zoom in: X-energy is indeed generating more revenue than Fervo, which is basically pre-commercial, reporting just $140,000 in 2025 revenue.

But the bulk of X-energy's 2025 revenue, at $109.1 million, comes from government-linked contracts and development services, as well as grants.

X-energy CEO Clay Sell told Axios last month: "This is an extraordinary period of government support, and it will be seen as transformative in the years to come."

Fervo reported a net loss of $57.8 million in 2025, and X-energy saw a net loss of $389.9 million last year.

Reality check: The AI boom, backed by U.S. federal support, is driving public market exuberance for nuclear. 

Geothermal can also deliver baseload power for AI data centers, but it's a relatively new sector that lacks the organizational and lobbying history of the nuclear industry. 

What we're watching: Given the longer timelines for all nuclear reactors, even SMRs, public market sentiment could swiftly change and depress the nuclear stocks that have popped over the past year.

When that happens, the companies' valuations could move closer, or even switch places, as a premium is placed on electricity that can deliver today. 

Fervo vs. X-energy: A curious tale of two valuations

The companies' IPOs are among the hottest in clean energy this year

an illustration of a calculator containing a 100 dollar bill in the window surrounded by circles 

The dueling IPOs of nuclear firm X-energy and geothermal company Fervo Energy highlight the curious way the market is pricing next-gen energy. Why it matters: The companies&#x27; IPOs are among the hottest in clean energy this year.

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Fervo vs. X-energy: A curious tale of two valuations

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