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BFD Expert Voices - Climate Deals

BFD Expert Voices

The F-150 Lightning fell short because of an unbridgeable disconnect between early-adopter exuberance and driveway reality. 

Why it matters: Overpromising and underdelivering — not policy whiplash — was the cause of death for not only the Lightning but plenty of other climate plays.

Flashback: Ford's initial EV embrace seemed to mark a watershed in American energy and climate policy.

The automaker pledged to spend $50 billion through 2026. Rather than silo its debut EVs under new model names, it hitched them to its two most iconic brands: Mustang and F-150.

Most crucially, it promised range over 300 miles on higher-trim models.

Friction point: The math ultimately didn't add up.

Zoom in: Early adopters who reserved the Lightning in 2021 found themselves waiting a year or longer for their trucks to be delivered.

Case in point: My brother, Jordan, a plumbing contractor who depends on his work truck, waited over two years before giving up and buying a Toyota Tundra instead.

Plus: Once the trucks arrived, their capabilities didn't live up to their hype — especially the most crucial detail: driving range.

One test by AAA found hauling 1,400 pounds (110 pounds less than its max capacity) in the truck bed killed about 25% of driving range.

Basics like heat and air conditioning further eroded the range, especially because Ford omitted battery-saving heat pumps from debut models.

State of play: What had seemed a capable, cutting-edge truck with over 300 miles of driving range was soon exposed as one curtailed by compromises.

Market share in the segment never crested 2.6%, per Cox Automotive sales data.

What they're saying: A Ford spokesperson referred to the company's Dec. 15 press release on the moves.

"This is a customer-driven shift," president and CEO Jim Farley said in the statement. "The operating reality has changed, and we are redeploying capital into higher-return growth opportunities."

The big picture: The experience should sound uncomfortably familiar to investors in other sectors involving low-carbon energy and climate tech. 

Carbon capture remains expensive and often absorbs less carbon than claimed; zero-carbon hydrogen production is costly, and the gas exceptionally difficult to transport; advanced biofuels and alternative proteins haven't surmounted scale-up challenges; and EV charging is still an infrastructure and maintenance morass.

The bottom line: If new tech can't compete with the incumbent, it's toast.

Ford has mostly itself to blame for EV shortfall

Overpromising and underdelivering — not policy whiplash — was the cause of death.

Line of silver Ford F-150 Lightning pickup trucks on an assembly line in a large, brightly lit factory with yellow equipment and automation robots.

Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickups sit on an assembly line at a factory in Dearborn, Michigan. Photo: DR/SP/Andia/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

The F-150 Lightning fell short because of an unbridgeable disconnect between early-adopter exuberance and driveway reality. Why it matters: Overpromising and underdelivering — not policy whiplash — was the cause of death for not only the Lightning but plenty of other climate plays.

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Ford has mostly itself to blame for EV shortfall

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