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A line chart that tracks quarterly U.S. climate startup investments by round size from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025. Deals of $5 million-$40 million declined from 127 to 62. $40 million-$100 million rounds rose from 16 to 34. $100 million+ rounds fluctuated between 10 and 22 deals.

Investment in U.S. climate startups, by round size

Nearly halfway through 2025, climate-oriented startups have closed more growth-stage rounds between $40 million and $100 million than during the same period each of the past two years, per PitchBook data.  

Why it matters: The apparent rebound runs counter to investors' gloomy outlook.

Driving the news: Research service Sightline Climate published a survey Friday of about 100 climate-focused venture and growth equity investors.

40% of respondents expect that rounds between $40 million to $100 million will prove hardest to close

Catch up quick: Climate startups, especially those putting steel in the ground instead of coding bits and bytes, have long struggled to close such rounds.

It's a precarious time: First-of-a-kind production plants are often too expensive for venture capital yet too risky for conventional private equity.

Yes, but: Deals data suggest the reality may not be as cloudy as investor vibes suggest, even amid intense financial and political headwinds.

U.S. climate startups since the start of 2025 have closed 61 deals between $40 million and $100 million — 24% more than the same period last year, and the most since the height of the climate-tech boom in 2022, per PitchBook.

💭Alan's thought bubble: Market turmoil may be acting like a sifter — allowing troubled startups to fall to a bankruptcy they were probably headed toward anyway, while allowing the more promising companies to stand out.

What we're watching: Whether this growth-stage rebound is durable, indicating more climate startups are reaching maturity, or instead simply a dead-cat bounce.

Climate is seeing a growth-stage rebound, for now

The data, for now, runs counter to investors' grim outlook.

Nearly halfway through 2025, climate-oriented startups have closed more growth-stage rounds between $40 million and $100 million than during the same period each of the past two years, per PitchBook data. Why it matters: The apparent rebound runs counter to investors&#x27; gloomy outlook.

Climate is seeing a growth-stage rebound, for now

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