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Tariffs to worsen trucking bloodbath

Illustration of Trump hiding in the water watching cargo ships

Trucking companies face plummeting cargo volumes at major U.S. ports in the coming weeks. 

Why it matters: The tariff-driven reductions will add to the pain from three years of a freight recession — likely driving some carriers to sell or shutter.

State of play: More than 30 scheduled cargo ship sailings to Los Angeles and Long Beach, the busiest U.S. ports, have been canceled through June. 

72 of the 713 East-West sailings scheduled between the weeks of April 21 and May 19 have been canceled, a Drewry analysis finds. 

Ocean freight bookings to the U.S. from China are down about 50% across the industry, Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen tells Axios.

What they're saying: "There are going to be casualties, no doubt," Harbor Trucking Association CEO Matt Schrap, who represents West Coast port truckers, says. "The magnitude remains to be seen."

Zoom out: Many trucking fleets were already constricting or consolidating their operations, as they contended with a prolonged down-cycle after a post-pandemic boom.  

"That includes downsizing, outsourcing, relying more on technology and, frankly, just losing customers because costs are too high," Schrap says.

The struggle isn't limited to trucking. Some distribution firms are backing out of long-term warehouse leases in Southern California because of the uncertainty, Schrap says.

Between the lines: Even if the U.S. and China agree to a deal on tariffs, the opening salvo of the trade war has done irreversible damage, Pacific Merchant Shipping Association President Mike Jacob wrote in a blog post last week. 

"We are already seeing dramatic drops in intermodal booking data, growth in blank sailings, pauses in trading, and unknown damage in the US-China commercial and financial relationship," Jacob wrote.

What we're watching: Ocean carriers are pulling ships from China and repositioning them in Vietnam and elsewhere in Southeast Asia, and in India and Latin America, which would reduce shipping capacity, even if tariffs are relaxed.

"If they get a deal, there are going to be a backlog of bookings ... and there's not going to be enough ships, and the price is going to go crazy," Petersen says. 

"If there's no deal," he adds, "companies go bankrupt, and we have a lot of pain."

1 big thing: Tariffs to worsen trucking bloodbath

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Thought bubble: Trucking carnage

April 23, 2025

1 big thing: Tariffs to worsen trucking bloodbath