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Axios Pro Deals Thought Bubble

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A vertical column chart that displays U.S. venture capital deal activity from 2020 to 2025. Total capital invested surged to $91.5 billion in Q1 2025, up from $39.3 billion in Q1 2020. Deal counts peaked at 5,633 in 2022, then declined to 3,990 in 2025.

U.S. venture capital deal activity

Data: PitchBook and NVCA; Chart: Axios Visuals

Venture capital deal dollars spiked in the first quarter of 2025, but volume remains nearly unchanged compared to the same period a year ago, according to PitchBook and the NVCA. 

Why it matters: It's emblematic of the FOMO flight to quality among VC investors. 

By the numbers: VCs disbursed $91.5 billion in Q1 25, surpassing the previous highest first-quarter tally in 2022. 

That's more than double the $42.4 billion in Q1 2024.

Between the lines: The 10 transactions over $500 million accounted for more than half of total VC investment during the first quarter. 

The exit intrigue: In Q1, 76% of startup acquisitions occurred before a Series B was raised.

In 2024, PitchBook found the high level of exit activity came primarily from smaller deals that were unable to support the returns needs of investors.

The big picture: AI megadeals propped up deal value, and AI overall made up more than 70% of capital. While demand remains strong, the impact of tariffs could curb investor enthusiasm if costs increase, per PitchBook.

State of play: Google's $32 billion acquisition of Wiz and CoreWeave's $1.5 billion IPO collectively generated more exit value than any quarter since Q4 2021.

Yes, but: CoreWeave's IPO, while the largest tech IPO in years, was much smaller than anticipated.

Meanwhile, public exits are becoming increasingly difficult and unattractive, analysts tell Axios.

What we're watching: If clearer regulatory signals can reengage IPO and M&A activity beyond AI. At least eight large U.S. IPOs have been delayed since President Trump's "Liberation Day."

AI megadeals buoy a fragile VC market in Q1 2025

Deal volume remains nearly the same compared to Q12024

Venture capital deal dollars spiked in the first quarter of 2025, but volume remains nearly unchanged compared to the same period a year ago, according to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="PitchBook and the NVCA" data-vars-click-url="https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q1-2025-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor" data-vars-content-id="7f0f3388-2693-4228-a55d-734dc3202238" data-vars-headline="AI megadeals buoy a fragile VC market in Q1 2025" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q1-2025-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor" target="_blank">PitchBook and the NVCA</a>. Why it matters: It&#x27;s emblematic of the FOMO flight to quality among VC investors.

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AI megadeals buoy a fragile VC market in Q1 2025

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