There's no doubt that President Trump and Joe Biden have hugely different energy policies, but the effect of a Biden win on U.S. oil production is less certain — at least in the near- and medium-term.
Driving the news: According to a Rystad Energy note published last week, there's no meaningful relationship between party control and domestic output, which is historically far more influenced by other forces.
The big question: How much will Biden's agenda, if he wins, affect how much U.S. output bounces back from the pandemic-fueled decline from record level production before the outbreak?
- Biden is vowing to end new oil-and-gas leasing on federal lands and waters, impose new emissions regulations, boost EV deployment and more.
- But he has not called for a ban on fracking that would block development on private lands at the heart of the (now stalled) U.S. boom.
What they're saying: "A potential fracking ban on federal acreage would hardly have any impact on nationwide oil and gas output in the medium term, given the already existing depth of low-cost inventory and activity migration," Rystad notes.
Go deeper: The oil stakes of Trump vs. Biden