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Image via DNV Energy Transition Outlook

A multidecade energy outlook from the consultancy DNV finds that COVID has not been a turning point on climate.

Why it matters: "[F]rom an energy transition perspective, the pandemic has been a lost opportunity," they write.

"Recovery packages have largely focused on protecting rather than transforming existing industries."

The big picture: The projection sees surging clean energy and a long-term decline in fossil fuels, but not enough to meet Paris Agreement goals.

  • They conclude coal use has peaked. Oil is rebounding and reaches pre-pandemic levels around 2025, but then declines to 55% of current levels by 2050.
  • Natural gas will grow this decade, stay flat in the 2030s and then decline only slowly.

The bottom line: There's a "very short window to close the gap" between current trajectories and Paris, which aims to limit temperature rise to under 2°C above preindustrial levels and ideally 1.5°C.

Absent stronger action, they project the increase to reach 2.3˚C by 2100 — far below worst-case outcomes, but a level slated to bring highly destructive effects.

Go deeper

Obama to attend UN climate summit in Glasgow

Former President Barack Obama speaks during the groundbreaking ceremony for the Obama Presidential Center at Jackson Park in Chicago on Sept. 28. Photo: Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP

Former President Barack Obama will travel to Glasgow next month for the UN climate summit, CNN reports.

Driving the news: Obama will meet with young climate change advocates and "urge more robust action going forward by all of us — governments, the private sector, philanthropy and civil society," according to an Obama spokesperson, per CNN.

Updated 3 hours ago - World

North Korea claims latest missile test new weapon launched from submarine

North Korean state media claims the country's military fired this missile on Tuesday. Photo: Korean Central News Agency

North Korean state media announced that a detected ballistic missile launch off its east coast on Tuesday was a newly developed weapon test-fired from a submarine.

Why it matters: Pyongyang's latest in a series of recent missile launches into the sea happened hours after U.S. officials emphasized their commitment to restart negotiations on North Korea's nuclear weapons program, which have stalled since talks broke down during the Trump administration, AP notes.

5 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Manchin's massive means test

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is offering progressives a trade: He'll vote for their cherished social programs if they accept strict income caps for the recipients, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Why it matters: Manchin’s plan to use so-called means-testing for everything from paid family medical leave to elder and disabled care would drastically shrink the size and scope of the programs. It also would bring a key moderate vote to the progressive cause.