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Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman al-Saud arrives for the 177th OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, on Dec. 5. Photo: Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images

OPEC and Russia are deciding next steps in their three-year effort to restrict production in order to prop up prices, during their two-day meeting currently underway in Vienna.

Why it matters: It will reveal how Saudi Arabia and Russia, the OPEC+ group's dominant players, will continue grappling with soft global demand and the rise of U.S. shale production.

  • On the latter point, the consultancy Rystad Energy is out with a note this morning that sees U.S. shale output continuing to grow a lot over the next three years even if WTI prices hang around in the $54–$57-per-barrel range. (They're $58-ish right now.)

The intrigue: There's genuine drama heading into this session.

  • It's unclear whether they'll deepen the production cuts, or rollover the agreement that curtails production by 1.2 million barrels per day through March.
  • The looming Saudi Aramco IPO is adding a new wrinkle into the meeting amid reporting that the Saudis want an outcome that will juice oil prices
  • Share pricing will be announced any moment now ahead of trading slated to start this month on the kingdom's domestic exchange.
  • Another thing to watch, per Bloomberg, is how the Saudis will pressure other members of the group to actually adhere to their pledges.
  • "Saudi Arabia is offering fellow OPEC+ members a quid pro quo: If you stop cheating, we’ll curb production," Bloomberg reports.

Where it stands: Financial Times energy editor David Sheppard tweets from Vienna this morning that there's "growing chatter among analysts about a potential 'Saudi surprise'" — additional cuts of 800,000 barrels per day or more.

  • But he cautions that delegates are tight-lipped. That said, a Rapidan Energy Group note yesterday similarly sees additional cuts as high as 1 million barrels per day.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Ben Geman, author of Generate
46 mins ago - Energy & Environment

Democrats' clean power outlook is very muddy

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Here are two big questions as a key Democratic proposal to slash emissions from power generation flounders: how much its demise would sap climate protections, and what might replace it.

Catch up fast: New financial carrots and sticks for utilities to deploy zero-carbon power — the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) — look unlikely to stay in Democrats' big social spending and climate bill.

Colin Powell dies from COVID complications at 84

Photo: Paul Morigi/Getty Images for Capital Concerts

Colin Powell, the first Black U.S. secretary of state, died of complications from COVID-19, his family announced Monday. He was 84.

Driving the news: The Powell family said in a statement that he was fully vaccinated. "We want to thank the medical staff at Walter Reed National Medical Center for their caring treatment."

3 hours ago - Health

This arthritis drug cost $198 in 2008. Now it's more than $10,000

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

In 2008, a box of 30 anti-inflammatory rectal suppositories that treats arthritis, called Indocin, had a price tag of $198. As of Oct. 1, the price of that same box was 52 times higher, totaling $10,350.

Why it matters: As federal lawmakers continue to waver on drug price reforms, Indocin is another example of how nothing prevents drug companies from hiking prices at will and selling them within a broken supply chain.

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